Read on Twitter
Deep-Dive: Pandemic Planning - Then, Now
Our “Public Health Experts” are making recommendations on:
-Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)
-Risk-benefit in public health
-Ethical issues
Which break with all previous plans prepared by public health institutions (CDC/WHO)
1
Our “Public Health Experts” are making recommendations on:
-Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)
-Risk-benefit in public health
-Ethical issues
Which break with all previous plans prepared by public health institutions (CDC/WHO)
1
What I did was look for Influenza Pandemic Plans/Recommendations created by our top Public Health Organizations in the past: CDC and WHO
I looked at Influenza because it’s also a respiratory infection which has garned alot of attention in the past 25 years: H1N1, H1N5 etc
2
I looked at Influenza because it’s also a respiratory infection which has garned alot of attention in the past 25 years: H1N1, H1N5 etc
2
CDC: Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) for Pandemic Influenza, National & Community Measures, 2006
This was the addendum to the 2006 CDC Flu Pandemic plan
NPI : https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-1371_article
2006 Flu Plan https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf
3
This was the addendum to the 2006 CDC Flu Pandemic plan
NPI : https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-1371_article
2006 Flu Plan https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf
3
CDC (cont)
It’s interesting how back then they had a little bit more common sense
If Pandemic Hits...
Stop Contact Tracing:
“Patient isolation and tracing and quarantine of contacts should cease, as such measures will no longer be feasible or useful”
4
It’s interesting how back then they had a little bit more common sense
If Pandemic Hits...
Stop Contact Tracing:
“Patient isolation and tracing and quarantine of contacts should cease, as such measures will no longer be feasible or useful”
4
CDC (cont)
NPIs not very effective:
“Reports from the 1918 influenza pandemic indicate that social-distancing measures did not stop or appear to dramatically reduce transmission, but research studies that might assess partial effectiveness are apparently unavailable”
5
NPIs not very effective:
“Reports from the 1918 influenza pandemic indicate that social-distancing measures did not stop or appear to dramatically reduce transmission, but research studies that might assess partial effectiveness are apparently unavailable”
5
CDC (cont)
Masks don’t really work:
“No controlled studies assess the efficacy of mask use in preventing transmission of influenza viruses”
“Mask wearing by the general population is not expected to have an appreciable impact on transmission, but should be permitted”
6
Masks don’t really work:
“No controlled studies assess the efficacy of mask use in preventing transmission of influenza viruses”
“Mask wearing by the general population is not expected to have an appreciable impact on transmission, but should be permitted”
6
CDC (cont)
This one kills me because it’s so obvious
-Learn info about virus charcteristics (IFR, who it kills)
-Make informed policy decisions
-Adjust policies according to new information
-Informed decisions require consideration of how costly and disruptive measures are
7
This one kills me because it’s so obvious
-Learn info about virus charcteristics (IFR, who it kills)
-Make informed policy decisions
-Adjust policies according to new information
-Informed decisions require consideration of how costly and disruptive measures are
7
WHO: Pandemic Influenza Risk Management 2017
The WHO put out a new guide to replace “Pandemic Influenza: WHO guidance document”
Why?
New guide “underscores the need for appropriate and timely risk assessment for evidence-based decision-making”
8
Link: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259893/WHO-WHE-IHM-GIP-2017.1-eng.pdf;jsessionid=FF0E44DE342CCEF9F0A31E1EFB14C8E8?sequence=1#page56
The WHO put out a new guide to replace “Pandemic Influenza: WHO guidance document”
Why?
New guide “underscores the need for appropriate and timely risk assessment for evidence-based decision-making”
8
Link: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259893/WHO-WHE-IHM-GIP-2017.1-eng.pdf;jsessionid=FF0E44DE342CCEF9F0A31E1EFB14C8E8?sequence=1#page56
WHO: (cont)
They didn’t rename it by mistake
The WHO makes it clear that many different factors need to be weighed and balanced in performing an analysis
When have Fauci, Redford or Birx presented a COVID-19 Risk Management Analysis showing us anything other than deaths?
9
They didn’t rename it by mistake
The WHO makes it clear that many different factors need to be weighed and balanced in performing an analysis
When have Fauci, Redford or Birx presented a COVID-19 Risk Management Analysis showing us anything other than deaths?
9
WHO (cont)
Funny enough, in the same document the WHO recommends that in assessing the seriousness of the disease, they should look for:
“Pre-existing immunity in the population, as measured by the level of cross-reactive antibodies”
You can’t make this stuff up!
10
Funny enough, in the same document the WHO recommends that in assessing the seriousness of the disease, they should look for:
“Pre-existing immunity in the population, as measured by the level of cross-reactive antibodies”
You can’t make this stuff up!
10
CDC: Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza — United States, 2017
This is the NPI addendum to updated CDC Pandemic Influenza Plan 2017
New Priorities:
-Rapid Vaccine development
-Testing
-Better Respiratory Protection for HCWs
11 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/rr/rr6601a1.htm#T3_down
This is the NPI addendum to updated CDC Pandemic Influenza Plan 2017
New Priorities:
-Rapid Vaccine development
-Testing
-Better Respiratory Protection for HCWs
11 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/rr/rr6601a1.htm#T3_down
CDC (cont)
They give pretty clear indications about what NPIs are appropriate in a severe novel virus pandemic
-mask wearing by sick
-no business/restaurant/bar closings
-school closings, but Flu much more dangerous to children
-no church closings
-no mention of lockdowns
12
They give pretty clear indications about what NPIs are appropriate in a severe novel virus pandemic
-mask wearing by sick
-no business/restaurant/bar closings
-school closings, but Flu much more dangerous to children
-no church closings
-no mention of lockdowns
12
Even if the pandemic is of a “Very High Severity”, there are no severe NPIs recommended
No lockdowns, no business/church closings
And please note, that the 1918 Spanish Flu was the only “Very High Severity” pandemic
We are not in a 1918 situation
13
No lockdowns, no business/church closings
And please note, that the 1918 Spanish Flu was the only “Very High Severity” pandemic
We are not in a 1918 situation
13
CDC (cont)
The CDC has itself recommended that these factors be considered:
-ethical considerations
-feasibility of NPIs
-NPIs targeted towards high risk groups
-getting the public to buy in
-balancing public health benefits and social costs
14
The CDC has itself recommended that these factors be considered:
-ethical considerations
-feasibility of NPIs
-NPIs targeted towards high risk groups
-getting the public to buy in
-balancing public health benefits and social costs
14
WHO: Addressing Ethical Issues in Pandemic Influenza Planning
This assessment of a pandemic’s ethical issues concludes: ”the tragedy will be even worse if society ignores the ethical concerns”
It’s not a single variable analysis about deaths
Link: https://www.who.int/ethics/publications/who_hse_epr_gip_2008_2/en/
15
This assessment of a pandemic’s ethical issues concludes: ”the tragedy will be even worse if society ignores the ethical concerns”
It’s not a single variable analysis about deaths
Link: https://www.who.int/ethics/publications/who_hse_epr_gip_2008_2/en/
15
Conclusions:
-Lockdowns, masks, business/church closings have never been a way to manage a resporatory pandemic - even in a worst case 1918 Flu scenario
-They refuse to do a simple public health Risk-Benefit analysis in order to assess the risks posed by lockdowns
16
-Lockdowns, masks, business/church closings have never been a way to manage a resporatory pandemic - even in a worst case 1918 Flu scenario
-They refuse to do a simple public health Risk-Benefit analysis in order to assess the risks posed by lockdowns
16
Conclusions (cont)
-There has been zero consideration for the trampling of ethical concerns
-Everything they are doing/recommending is contrary to their own plans and recommendations
-Nothing makes sense
Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised since we’ve given away many freedoms
17 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1317168314855137280
-There has been zero consideration for the trampling of ethical concerns
-Everything they are doing/recommending is contrary to their own plans and recommendations
-Nothing makes sense
Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised since we’ve given away many freedoms
17 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1317168314855137280
So yeah, they just seem to be making it up as they go along
That’s it
Thanks for reading this far
If you’ve learned anything please RT the first tweet
Thanks!
18
That’s it
Thanks for reading this far
If you’ve learned anything please RT the first tweet
Thanks!
18
P.S. - The CDC was actually very thorough in their assessment of the efficacy of NPIs
They even shared their list of sources and it is comprehensive
These current NPI studies are rife with confirmation bias
Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutical-interventions/tools-resources/published-research.html
19
They even shared their list of sources and it is comprehensive
These current NPI studies are rife with confirmation bias
Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutical-interventions/tools-resources/published-research.html
19
