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Dangerous rise in COVID cases around US. We need to strengthen containment efforts and change directions. But it’s not inevitable that COVID cases will inexorably grow thru winter, sweep all parts of the country, or that our fate is sealed. We can change directions. 1/x
First – need to take serious look at the really concerning trends: > 65,000 cases nationally yesterday, the most since mid August, with average of 700 deaths a day. 2/x
Hopkins site shows 37 states rising in the last week. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview Many states, particularly in the Midwest and plains are seeing highest numbers of cases and highest numbers of deaths per day since the start of the pandemic 3/x
If you look at the NYT incidence map, many many counties in the middle of the country are bright red, which on that map means more than 56 cases per day per 100,000 people. 4/x https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
To put that in perspective, the White House coronavirus task force said in a recent report that counties that received a green designation in their rating system (presumably the goal) should be less than or near 1 case per day per 100,000 people. 5/x https://twitter.com/l_e_whyte/status/1308104208932012033?s=20
And, according to the WH task force, a county with > 14 cases per day per 100,000 people was classified an area as being in their red category, highest risk. Very high number of counties are now way beyond that. 6/x
The number hospitalized for COVID in the country is >37,000 which has risen from a low of about 28,000 about a month ago. 7/x https://covidtracking.com/data/national/hospitalization
Impact on Wisconsin health care system is serious and could get worse – with WH coronavirus task force reporting “extreme concern” 9/x https://www.postcrescent.com/story/news/2020/10/15/wisconsin-coronavirus-latest-white-house-task-force-report-says-situation-worsen-if-residents-dont-r/3666103001/
What is happening in Wisconsin’s health care system could be foreshadowing for other states around the country. On a normal day, Wisconsin considered to have a high ranking health care system 10/x https://www.wpr.org/federal-report-wisconsins-overall-health-care-quality-remains-high-despite-dip-ranking
We are not turning the page, rounding the corner, or near the end of this pandemic. We will get there one day, but we not close now and it's irresponsible for leaders to suggest we are. 11/x
Its important for the public to know exactly where things stand, without attempts to paint a rosy picture. If the public gets clear and factual information, people will be empowered to make good decisions. 12/x
Which gets to 2nd of the thread: Our fate with this virus is not inevitable. Yes the US has done poorly compared to most countries in the world since the pandemic started, but it's in no way too late to change how things go in the months ahead 13/x
I’ve heard a number of senior people involved in COVID response look at current conditions and winter ahead and say that a worsening slide seemed inevitable over the winter. 14/x
Its true that winter months will drive people indoors and if they gather indoors in large numbers, that will increase risk of transmission. But that is widely known now. And we can react and plan accordingly and make good decisions. 15/x
What happens in the coming months of the pandemic, depends directly on what leaders say and do and what actions the public takes. 16/x
Need to wear masks, physical distance, avoid big gatherings, do outdoor things when we can. Improve indoor ventilation whenever possible. People who can telecommute should. Good hand hygiene. Extensive testing, tracing, isolation/quarantine. 17/x
If we all do these things, they'd turn the pandemic in far better direction. In some places, if the epidemic can't be controlled by those things, more closures of higher transmission risk activities might need to happen for a while. But we're not yet all doing the basics 18/x
Saying it is inevitable is giving up on having the power to make a change. 19/x
Other places in the world have shown it is possible to have entirely different experiences than the US has had and is slipping towards. Since May, NZ has had 3 COVID deaths, Thailand and Taiwan have had none. 20/x
The continent of Africa (1.26B people) has reported 27,255 deaths. The US has about a quarter the population people, but about 217,000 (8 times) the deaths. 21/x https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20201012-weekly-epi-update-9.pdf
We need to find resolve to take action to slow the spread of this pandemic and not let statements about inevitability discourage us from doing the right thing. Let's act with as much urgency+commitment as those living in countries that have managed to control their COVID /end
