The UN arms embargo on Iran expires this Sunday. Though it has faded from the news along with the sanctions snapback debate that it prompted, the embargo's expiration remains important and troubling. 1/
There are many reasons why Iran isn't likely to receive a sudden influx of arms- a lack of funds; the threat of US sanctions against suppliers; those suppliers' relations with Iran's regional rivals; and Iran's asymmetric national security strategy, for example. 2/
Nevertheless, Iran is likely to 1) sign arms deals - even if they are not immediately consummated - to send a political message. This in itself could make waves in the region. 2) Enhance key capabilities like UAVs and missiles, used in the past to lethal effect. 3/
Further, we must assume that whatever Iran receives, it will pass on to its regional proxies and partners, like Hezbollah or militias in Syria and Yemen. There are few more destabilizing factors in the region than Iran's reckless proliferation of advanced weapons. 4/
While the proliferation of weapons to Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere is often barred by UN resolutions, the reality is that it is easier to prevent Iran from obtaining these arms in the first place than to track and stop their onward proliferation. 5/
Preventing Iran from acquiring new arms and preventing proliferation to Iran's proxies are goals shared widely by the US and allies in and outside of the region, and even by some US rivals. Yet since the snapback episode there has apparently been little progress to these ends. 6/
I'd like to see 1) Joint efforts by the US and allies to step up arms interdictions to enforce remaining UN embargoes; 2) Joint approaches to Russia and China by Israel and the Gulf states asking that they refrain from arms sales to Iran, especially UAVs, missiles, etc. 7/
Finally - if the JCPOA remains in place, as is likely w/a Biden victory next month - we need to see more advance planning for the next sunset, in this case of the ban on certain missile activity, which occurs in 2023. Better that it be eliminated entirely. /End
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