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THREAD: How the White House& #39;s herd immunity & #39;let it rip, shield the old& #39; strategy would kill millions and destroy the economy - and what the scientific consensus really suggests (which neither the US nor UK govt have followed) https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1... /1
In England, COVID fatality rate for age 15-44 is 0.03%. If all 25 million of these Brits were infected, 7,500 would die. https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1... /2
As this is only 37% of UK population, most scientists say we need 70%, herd immunity via infection would need just under double. So nearly 15,000 young adult deaths would likely die. https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1... /3
In USA, case fatality rate for 20-49 years is 0.02%. Once again, very low, but if all 129 million of these Americans infected, over 25,000 would die. /4 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
Once again, as herd immunity requirement nearer 70%, likely nearer double that amount and therefore around 50,000 would die. /5 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
Those proposing herd immunity to be reached via natural infection only, do not acknowledge that even with the very low fatality rates for younger adults, it is quite likely that as many as 15,000 in UK and 50,000 in US would die from such an approach /6 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
And at minimum, assuming lower herd immunity threshold, some 4,000 and 25,000 minimum younger adults would die in the UK and US respectively from such an approach, under most optimistic (and highly speculative) assumptions. /7 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
These, then, are the & #39;acceptable deaths& #39; which proponents of the & #39;let it rip, shield the old& #39; strategy carefully refuse to mention. But it doesn& #39;t stop there. They don& #39;t admit that the scientific evidence around COVID-19 immunity doesn& #39;t support such a strategy /8
As The Lancet open letter signed by 2,000+ international public health scientists warns, coronavirus immunity tends to wane after a few months. So without a vaccine, herd immunity is likely to decline quite quickly. So shielding would last indefinitely /9 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
The other problem is that, as The Lancet letter notes, the & #39;let it rip, shield the old& #39; proponents have no idea how to practically shield ALL the old and vulnerable indefinitely. Even under UK full lockdown, this was impossible. In short, it& #39;s not practicable. /10
The Lancet letter points out that as locking up the old and vulnerable, which represent *at least* 30% of population (if not much more) is practically impossible, mass infections would inevitably leak into the supposedly shielded, destroying the point of it /11
In that scenario, thousands of young adult deaths would still pale in comparison to the larger numbers of elderly and vulnerable deaths that would likely happen as a result of such leaking. That is why epidemiologists estimate 2.5 million could die. https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1... /12
But even assuming optimistically shielding was possible, what would impact be of 13 million infections in UK and 129 million infections in US? Using existing data we can infer plausible scenarios and the outcome would be utter healthcare collapse /13 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
US hospitalisation rate for age 20-49 has been 14%+. That& #39;s 18m extra young adults needing specialised COVID support in US. And similarly, over 1m in UK. These colossal numbers would overwhelm health systems, and push out urgent care for other cases /14 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
Previous cases show that when health systems collapse, that is when fatality rates shoot-up higher, due to both direct COVID deaths, and indirect deaths from a crumbling health service that cannot treat non-COVID urgent patients /15 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
As health systems collapse, GDP will also collapse - as data shows broadly that the two are closely correlated. While it& #39;s complex, we can say with confidence that increases in mortality will lead to decreases in economic performance. /16 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
But there& #39;s another direct cause of GDP collapse under a herd immunity & #39;let it rip, shield the old& #39; strategy: older adults contribute a massive chunk to GDP - around **40% in the US**. Indefinite shielding guarantees removing this from the economy /17 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
Thousands of young adult deaths, millions of hospitalisations, collapsing health care, crashing GDP due to indefinite shielding - and prospect of shielding failing and driving more vulnerable deaths - is most plausible outcome of natural herd immunity /18 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
But an endless cycle of draconian lockdowns is also NOT the answer to this crisis according to the vast majority of public health experts, as reflected in The Lancet open letter https://www.johnsnowmemo.com"> https://www.johnsnowmemo.com /19
UK is looking at another lockdown(s) because the Govt failed to follow proper scientific advice, just as it had failed to do this early on since Jan. That advice involves: strong limited duration lockdown, open up with robust local test/trace, border controls /20
From May to June, SAGE repeatedly warned Govt that without robust local test and trace capacity, a second wave of COVID-19 would be inevitable. But Govt preferred to pay-off its mates in Serco, rather than build out local public health infrastructure /21 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/07/15/sagegate-government-still-chasing-long-term-herd-immunity-for-covid-19/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/07/1...
That is why the lifting of restrictions utterly predictably has brought us to the point of a resurgent epidemic, potentially far worse than the first wave. Because Govt ignored the science, and even now offers no proper strategy for getting out of this crisis /22
But best practice cases from Germany, Australia, New Zealand, S. Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, show it *is* possible to get people back to work, to get economy moving, while also suppressing virus and protecting as many lives as possible, without locking *anyone* away indefinitely /23
That involves: limited duration lockdown to get infection rate down and manageable; robust local test, trace & isolate policies; open up, with sound general protection practices like masks; life returns to normal return to relative normality /24 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1...
Some countries, like Taiwan and S. Korea, have managed virus, keeping deaths at minimum and economies moving far better than ours, without lockdowns at all, using a combination of such approaches. US and UK Govts *can* save lives and livelihoods. https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/15/how-the-white-houses-herd-immunity-strategy-would-destroy-the-us-economy/">https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/1... /END
