Been asked: is it a big deal that only African countries to issue eurobonds (ie USD/EUR in global debt markets) since Feb are #Egypt & #Morocco? My thoughts not surprising or shocking given events. thread 1/9 @felixsalmon

Few African countries tap eurobond mkt each year. 6 regulars past 5 years (2015-19): Egypt*5; #Ghana/IvyCst/SAfrica/ #Tunisia all*4; #Angola*3. Then less reg: #Nigeria #Kenya #Gabon #Senegal all*2. Remaining 11 once or none. So in given year shouldn’t expect all to tap 2/9

Of regulars so far in 2020, only issuers = Ghana(Feb) & Egypt(May+Oct) + less reg Morocco(Sep) & Gabon(Feb). So why have several regulars remained out? And why no debuts/ less regulars? 3/9

Reason absence1: March-Apr mkt frozen/not open. Since then open depending on country & narrative. Mkts been a bit pricey, but not too extent many argue. More important is many regular found financing elsewhere. But in some politics also got in way. Debuts put off by crisis 4/9

Crucial also that not many African eurobonds maturing in 2020/needed rolling (same for 2021) + was lots of local currency borrowing (arguably better as no foreign currency risk) 5/9

Reasons absence: IvyCst: got cheaper rapid IMF $, issued regional franc debt & election postponed plans to 2021, #SouthAfrica: borrowed at home in Rand + cheaper IMF$. Tunisia: IMF + official sector $ + politics tricky & postponed plans 6/9

Reasons absence3: Angola got IMF $ + yields in 2nd’ry prohibit access. Nigeria chose dom financing + cheaper IMF/World Bank/AFDB $$ 7/9

Amount issuance 2020. In $/EUR year-to-date =$11.9bn. Much smaller than record years 2018= $27.2bn & 2019= $28.2bn. Gap in mainly missing issuance from http://S.Africa (ave $3.5bn per year), say ~$4bn from Nigeria & bits from 2-3 others. 8/9

Summary: despite financing needs Covid-19 shock 2020 not likely match record Africa eurobond issuance. But was lots (cheaper)IMF/ official $ on offer & CB rate cutting helped (not normal in EM crisis, but worked given nature of shock) with big increase in local currency debt. end