Read on Twitter
The vast majority of COVID deaths in England since July have been mislabelled false positive deaths. Here is the proof. This chart shows the number of tests carried out in hospitals in orange and the deaths in blue. THREAD
You will notice that the shape of the two curves are very similar. We can test this. The chart below demonstrates that since August 93% of the rise in deaths can be accounted for by the rise in the number of tests done in hospitals over the 28 days preceding.
I have never seen such a tight correlation in my career. Biology just isn’t like that. But there it is - 93%.
What does this mean? Whenever we test there will be some tests that do not work properly. For the COVID PCR test this number is low but when you are mass testing it matters. When there is a lot of COVID about we needn’t worry about a small % of false positives.
If, as now, we mass test everyone in hospital then a certain % of those test results will be false positives. The patient tests positive but does not have COVID. This has been happening since summer.
If someone is admitted with a cough, say, and the staff are worried and test them repeatedly then their chances of a false positive result can be multiplied by the number of times they were tested.
The characteristics of the people testing positive in spring were very different to those in summer. Spring 60% of deaths were in men. Summer 50/50. Spring hospital fatality rate 6%. Summer hospital fatality rate 1.7% (same as any hospital admission). https://logicinthetimeofcovid.com/2020/09/07/waiting-for-zero/
Spring 60% of cases were over 60. Summer 11% were over 60. The increasing proportion of asymptomatic ‘cases’ is another clue. In spring there was a tight relationship between diagnosis and time to death. This was lost in summer. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/public-health-england-death-data-revised/
Antibody levels have jumped around randomly but there has been no increase despite the increased number of ‘cases’. These are false positive test results and COVID misdiagnoses.
Random population screening (which is also full of false positives) is meant to indicate how many cases there are in the country. In July and August, with thorough testing, 30% of the cases predicted were diagnosed.
Testing has ramped up so much that for 18th-24th Sept 66% of predicted cases were diagnosed. The trend suggests in a couple of weeks we will detect more cases than the ONS predicted existed.
All of this evidence demonstrates that the COVID ‘cases’ are misdiagnoses. So what about ‘COVID’ deaths?
In July and August, for a third of patients dying with a COVID diagnosis, the doctors could not bring themselves to put that as the underlying cause of death: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/death-certificate-data-covid-19-as-the-underlying-cause-of-death/
Mark Oakford has shown that 96% of the 20,000 patients dying of influenza, pneumonia and COVID had their deaths attributed to COVID. https://twitter.com/TheGoodStatsMan/status/1316001213893292032?s=20
There are no excess deaths overall currently
Where there are slightly higher deaths (you expect an increase over time with larger population) they are being seen in regions with low cases, not the North West or Yorkshire. Are these patients scared of going to hospital for treatment? https://twitter.com/Brixton_Ben26/status/1315935601858838532?s=20
But we’ve been told there are COVID patients on ITU. That’s serious right?
In spring 16% of ITU patients with COVID were of black ethnicity. In Sept that figure was 7%. Other ITU data is unclear, likely because of a bias to admit COVID positive patients if obese, old, asian and male. https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1315607101327237121?s=20
In spring the length of stay on ITU was 14 days for survivors and 10 days for no-survivors. By September it was 5 days for both. The mortality prediction score (APACHE II) fell from 16 in spring to 13. It is 15 for an average ITU patient. https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1315607344068337664?s=20
The relationship between the data on ventilated patients in a hospital and deaths there during the spring was very close. That relationship was totally lost in summer. This is because both ITU diagnoses and death diagnoses were randomly distributed through false +ve test results
The COVID positive hospital population are not coming in through A&E with respiratory problems. A&E attendances for acute respiratory infection are down.
I cannot prove there are not some genuine pockets of COVID in the country. I am just highly sceptical that overall picture shows anything like what we are being told.
Based entirely on the relationship to tests, I predict 459 deaths attributed to COVID in the week 15th-21st October in England. It is plateauing thanks to plateauing tests. There is no way this can be attributed to govt intervention recently for which you would expect a lag
This is how we sort out this mess: https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1315212098775982080?s=20
COVID has not gone. It will come back as an endemic disease every winter, like flu. If we intend to manage it when it does then we need to stop the tsunami of false positive results so we can see the second winter ripple.
Given all of the above, I have become highly suspicious of the percentages of +ve tests that we have been told. COVID is a notifiable disease. Every positive test from private testing or university or school screening will be included in the case numbers. https://twitter.com/duncangolicher/status/1316029895567441920?s=20
The percentage of positive ‘cases’ should be the number of cases testing positive in Govt PCR testing divided by the number of tests Govt did. Why do I get the same percentages as published when I use all the cases, including notified cases? END
