1/x Today was an important test for the Market. As I pointed out at the recent top, it has had every reason to go down: it was overbought, poor seasonality, poor vol centric support in indices, overextended retail buying, forced delta liquidation from unwind in equity call buying https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1316758625701036033

2/x , upcoming election certainty, & rising IVol, not to mention the illiquidity of OpEx, just to name a few....But the market action in the face of breaking an import gamma inflection point in Dec fut 3455-3460 was tepid at best... As I‘ve mentioned this underlying strength is

3/x is to be ignored at ur own peril when this strong. $ is truth.There‘s still time for bears to take control, but I’ve been clear, that this must begin in earnest by this Mon & show weakness through mid next week, otherwise bulls are firmly in control & reinforcements will soon

4/ be on their way. The bull case is as follows: technicals & seasonality are improving, IVol is compressed in the front of the curve providing potential leverage and tail wind for Vol, targeting, trend follow, risk parity flows, positive EOM/BOM flows are around the corner &

5/x will support Election Day.Following the election, as discussed in recent interviews, there are cheap election Vol plays available to dealers for the weeks following the election (thru 11/27) that should provide gamma,yet there is still a post election hump that should provide

6/x significant potential energy for a thrust higher backed by vanna flows upon resolution of the event.This is an underlying cause of the broadly misunderstood ‘wall of worry’ effect. Feared events rarely materialize as real events, regardless of the outcome,due to these factors

7/xThese flows, paired with an EOY performance chase, should take us into the most positive mth of the year 12/15-1/15, where Santa Clause & the ‘Jan effect’ should begin the 6 mth look forward to a coming a vaccine and economic reopening under, paired with a fiscal stimulus wave

8/x to be clear, the next 2 days (through Mon) are critical. & the following week the window is still open for a decline. If bears can take ahold of their opportunity & break the market down below the 20 day before 10/26, the market could still see a liquidity driven unwind, but

9/9 odds are beginning to be priced against them, as the market seems to be looking fwd @ significant potential tailwinds that lie ahead.Let discretion be the better part of valor this week, as there will be plenty of time to hop on & ride the bull, as risks abate. Good Luck!