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How Trump Is Capitalizing On Our Hardship: (a very long thread) There is an unreported pattern in Trump’s controversial rhetoric and policies, and it indicates a truly disturbing campaign strategy.
The key insight presented here is that Trump is creating a situation in which supporters and opponents are pressured to submit ballots through different administrative systems.
As will be discussed shortly, differing views of COVID-19, voter fraud, and extremism are all expected to drive the partisan segregation of ballots.
Preliminary data indicate a significant self-sorting effect with Democrats preferring absentee ballots and Republicans preferring to vote on Election Day (1,2).
After I dive into the specifics of the ballot-sorting scheme, I will explain how it complements Trump’s emerging voter suppression apparatus to give him a significant and unfair advantage.
We’ve recently witnessed Trump’s curious resolve to continue “downplaying” COVID-19 despite having himself received experimental treatment for the illness.
In trying to make sense of this absurd situation I became aware that much of Trump’s seemingly irrational posturing may be explained as a rational attempt to manipulate supporters and opponents to self-segregate their ballots.
In my analysis, Trump needs his supporters to underestimate COVID-19 for two reasons. Firstly, supporters will not be fearful of gathering at the polls on Election Day.
Secondly, supporters will continue to spread the disease such that it remains a legitimate concern and opponents are pressured to cast absentee ballots.
In addition to providing political cover for voter suppression (3), Trump’s voter fraud narrative likely enhances the ballot-sorting effect.
The false narrative discourages Trump’s supporters from using absentee ballots while the effort of other officials to combat misinformation prevents Trump’s opponents from being similarly discouraged.
Trump has expanded his voter fraud narrative to suggest his allies in law enforcement serve as poll watchers (4).
In light of recent demonstrations against the conduct of law enforcement officers, it should be apparent to all that Trump’s “poll watcher” rhetoric will discourage some of his opponents from voting on Election Day.
Very similar posturing has created the fear that “poll watchers” might be drawn from the extremist groups that support Trump.
Though I cannot prove conclusively the intent behind Trump’s irresponsible policies and rhetoric, I trust the reader will acknowledge that a pronounced ballot-sorting effect is a likely outcome.
Having engineered circumstances that strongly motivate supporters and opponents to cast ballots through different administrative pathways, Trump and his allies have the opportunity to unfairly sway the election by focusing legal and administrative attacks on the absentee ballot..
pathway. Under the best circumstances, there are multiple reasons that a genuine absentee ballot could go uncounted with a missed deadline being the most common (5).
During this pandemic, an unprecedented volume of absentee ballots may challenge the Postal Service and result in delays. Rather than risking the rejection of genuine ballots that happen to get delayed in the mail, some states have sought to extend their ballot return deadlines.
Trump’s opposition to such extensions is documented in some of the many lawsuits around this election. It is evident that Trump is prepared to exploit COVID-19 in order to disenfranchise his opponents.
The fight over deadlines is especially unsporting given that Trump’s policies have encouraged the spread of COVID-19 and his own administration’s appointee Louis DeJoy recently disrupted the Postal Service (6).
As can be seen in a number of lawsuits, circumstances around COVID-19 have left absentee ballots especially vulnerable to legal attacks (7). Ignoring partisan gamesmanship, I think most will agree that we do not want to let COVID-19 be used as a weapon against democracy.
Some of the election lawsuits making their way to the US Supreme Court make it clear that some judges will oppose good-faith efforts to prevent COVID-19 from unnecessarily obstructing the absentee ballot pathway.
In light of the ballot-sorting effect, strict enforcement of some pre-pandemic rules will certainly skew the election in favor of Republicans. Trump has said that he believes the election will be decided in the Supreme Court (8).
Trump and the Republican Party have been very clear that they intend to put Judge Amy Coney Barrett on the court before Election Day. This plan will likely succeed, and so Republicans will control the court with a 6-3 majority and Trump’s nominees will make up a full third of the
Justices. Unless it is overtly illegal to do so, we can anticipate that the court will generally use a strict interpretation of law that favors the Republican Party even if that interpretation means election rules are objectively unfair for our difficult circumstances.
Following this assault on democracy, outright rebellion may be averted with narratives like “it would be unfair to change the rules so close to an election.“
To summarize, Trump appears well positioned to “win” the election thanks largely to his harmful manipulations of the information and public health landscapes. This administration’s controversial rhetoric and policies on COVID-19, race relations, and election integrity are....
expected to amplify the effects of voter suppression by pressuring supporters and opponents to cast ballots through different systems.
A multitude of lawsuits, interference in the postal service, and determination to appoint a new Supreme Court justice before the election make it clear that Trump plans to suppress absentee votes that are cast in good faith.
To be blunt, there is ample reason to suspect that Trump has been neglecting or even encouraging the deaths and despair of his citizenry to better his chance of stealing this election.
Given the current partisanship of the Judiciary, widespread public attention may be our last defense against the injustice described.
My spouse authored this thread, but I feel it is of the upmost importance that this information is shared widely. If we don’t address this head on, we will be heading toward an further erosion of our civil rights.
