The calculations in our article are based on what happened when a Texas abortion law caused clinics there to close—and on an analysis of which states are most likely to restrict access to abortions if Roe is overturned. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/15/upshot/what-happens-if-roe-is-overturned.html
Our story doesn't measure any abortions that may occur outside of legal clinics. But @clairecm took a look at the evidence that women are illicitly ordering pills to manage their own abortions now. This practice could expand in a post-Roe world. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/upshot/abortion-pills-rising-use.html
Even without Roe, abortion access would be unchanged in many parts of the country. In some places, the distances to clinics are already hundreds of miles. In others, state legislatures are unlikely to pass new laws restricting abortion. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/15/upshot/what-happens-if-roe-is-overturned.html
Many thanks to @Caitlin_K_Myers and her colleagues for sharing this data with us.
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