As much as it feels amazing to be a good team right now, it’s important to not get carried away with our Nations League position.

This is why...
Only the two best winners out of 14 Nations League groups get a World Cup 2022 play-off spot.

It isn’t in our hands, but in order to put ourselves in the best position possible, every point and every goal is crucial next month.

This “we only need one more win” is nonsense.
The best 2 group winners from League A reach the play offs.

If they qualify the traditional way, the spots are “passed down” to the next best group winners in League A, B and so on.

As it stands, we’re the fifth best “group winner” (best of League B/behind the 4 from League A).
This is the best we can achieve and means unlike the end of the last Nations League campaign, we can’t confirm a play off spot after the final game.

Instead, we’re waiting to see if at least three of the four League A group winners qualify the traditional way.
Also worth pointing out the Nations League is not a guaranteed path to WC2022.

It’s not like one spot is reserved for a team from the NL play offs.

The two teams are mixed in with the 10 runners up from the traditional qualifiers.

Out of 12 teams, only three progress.
The groups for the World Cup 2022 traditional qualifying campaign are drawn in December.

As it stands, we’re going to be in Pot 3, and that’s unlikely to change regardless of results next month.

So as ever, that’s going to be a very difficult route, so the NL is huge for us.
And then it impacts Euro 2024 (are you keeping up?)

Winning our current group (B2) will see us promoted to League A for the 2022-23 Nations League.

And that’s, weirdly, likely to reward us with a play off even if we drop a lot of points.
I don’t *think* it’s been decided yet, but if the 2022/23 Nations League takes the same format as 18/19, there will again be a path for four teams to qualify for the Euros.

If this happens, most in League A will qualify the traditional way and therefore pass the spot down to us.
So in conclusion, every point and every goal next month could impact our World Cup 2022 and Euro 2024 campaigns. This is not a time for complacency*

*(But yes, regardless, we’re awesome and gonna win the World Cup, I know 😎🥳)
You can follow @_LauraBrannan.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: