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blue states and red states in the US have adopted VERY different courses of action around covid.
i have split states into categories based on voting in last 4 pres elections.
blue, red = all 4
purple = mixed, then split by current governor
no lockdown is a subset of red.
i have split states into categories based on voting in last 4 pres elections.
blue, red = all 4
purple = mixed, then split by current governor
no lockdown is a subset of red.
blue states saw a significantly higher rise in unemployment (555 basis points) vs red states (260 basis points) (vs feb column)
current unemployment is 287bp higher in blue states than red.
and the ratio of current unemployment to pre lockdown is 2.73 vs 1.76. (aug rate/feb)
current unemployment is 287bp higher in blue states than red.
and the ratio of current unemployment to pre lockdown is 2.73 vs 1.76. (aug rate/feb)
we can normalize this to the feb rate for all states for comparison.
the red states saw less rise and are nearer to recovery.
the purple states actually fared worst early on, but those with red governors are recovering faster.
no lockdown has vastly outperformed.
the red states saw less rise and are nearer to recovery.
the purple states actually fared worst early on, but those with red governors are recovering faster.
no lockdown has vastly outperformed.
so the price-tag is very clear, the economic pressure on the blue states looks to be much higher, and many do not want to unlock and allow this to become clear.
the interesting question is "what did they buy for this?"
based on this, it looks like "self-harm."
the interesting question is "what did they buy for this?"
based on this, it looks like "self-harm."
yes, i know this is a complex system/other issues were at play. yes, i know that correlation is not causality
BUT: the idea of strong causality without correlation is pretty ridiculous. if these measures were effective, they should correlate to some better outcome
they don't
BUT: the idea of strong causality without correlation is pretty ridiculous. if these measures were effective, they should correlate to some better outcome
they don't
US states locked down/adjusted behavior starting about 3/15. by late march, they reached "peak lockdown" and generally held for 3-4 weeks. i used that datapoint to assess the "hammer" part of lockdown.
it seems to correlate to more, not fewer deaths.
it seems to correlate to more, not fewer deaths.
US deaths by state have been highly seasonal/regional with different areas and latitudes being affected at different times.
lots of disingenuous reporting has gone on around this comparing peak TX to run out NY etc.
it's not a valid comparison. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1295716257673641984?s=20
lots of disingenuous reporting has gone on around this comparing peak TX to run out NY etc.
it's not a valid comparison. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1295716257673641984?s=20
this is why i've chosen to use cumulative deaths per capita. (data from worldometer)
we care about the overall effect.
and the data appears to be in consonance with this repudiation of the hammer and dance.
those that hammered hardest got hurt worst. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1315669937269202944?s=20
we care about the overall effect.
and the data appears to be in consonance with this repudiation of the hammer and dance.
those that hammered hardest got hurt worst. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1315669937269202944?s=20
so it's small wonder the ringleaders of lockdown are so determined to mislead and claim it's needed now.
admitting that you did this much damage with an ill conceived strategy that actually did harm instead of helping is political death.
they'd rather shift blame and lie.
admitting that you did this much damage with an ill conceived strategy that actually did harm instead of helping is political death.
they'd rather shift blame and lie.
the blame shifting in particular has been surreal.
they call trump a tyrant, a fascist, and an authoritarian.
yet he did none of this. people were literally begging him to do it and he refused and chose federalism.
he let the states decide.
they call trump a tyrant, a fascist, and an authoritarian.
yet he did none of this. people were literally begging him to do it and he refused and chose federalism.
he let the states decide.
the states plotted their own courses on covid.
those who locked down hard did not do so b/c of federal diktat. they made that bed.
now they want bailouts and to blame the feds for their own policy.
they want to revise history and be the heroes, not the rubes.
don't let them
those who locked down hard did not do so b/c of federal diktat. they made that bed.
now they want bailouts and to blame the feds for their own policy.
they want to revise history and be the heroes, not the rubes.
don't let them
the cost of lockdowns has been outlandish and the benefits non existent.
but it has been political gold for demagogues who have grabbed power and lied their way to awesome poll numbers.
the moral hazard of rewarding that is simply too grave to allow.
that's how societies die
but it has been political gold for demagogues who have grabbed power and lied their way to awesome poll numbers.
the moral hazard of rewarding that is simply too grave to allow.
that's how societies die
don't allow this.
if you want representative government to work, we MUST have accountability.
don't let these hucksters dissemble their way out of responsibility for the choices they made and the damage they did.
the nation you save may be your own...
if you want representative government to work, we MUST have accountability.
don't let these hucksters dissemble their way out of responsibility for the choices they made and the damage they did.
the nation you save may be your own...
