HAPPENING NOW: Follow along as we live-tweet the launch of #APT2020, featuring discussion with:

- Kurt M. Campbell
- Siddharth Mohandas ( @siddmohandas)
- Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick)
- Michele Flournoy ( @micheleflournoy)
- Jason Furman ( @Jasonfurman)
- Ashley J. Tellis

Our host for the event Meridith Webster ( @MWebster400) introduces Kurt M. Campbell and Siddharth Mohandas to outline a few key trends from #APT2020

Kurt M. Campbell highlights "Asia's determination to be first out of the gate on coronavirus"

This attempt draws on:

- testing
- distancing
- creative public policies
- health groups

Kurt M. Campbell also highlights the "politics of confrontation that will only grow more intense in the region regardless of the election."

. @siddmohandas on Asia's economic response to #COVID19: "You have seen an effort to reorient supply chains in the region."

Highlights Japan and India as two countries that are trying to attract MNCs from China.

. @siddmohandas on "The Rise of Asian Nationalism"

- In West, nationalism is characterized by withdrawal
- In Asia, governments are trying to reap the benefits of the global economy, but "on their own terms."
- Security issues are spilling into the economic realm

. @siddmohandas: In Asia, trade and commerce are "increasingly suffused with a nationalistic spirit"

Kurt M. Campbell: Our #APT2020 report is meant to give you a picture of what is happening in the most dynamic region in the world

TAG Senior Advisor Ashley J. Tellis now moderates a power-packed panel with @authorzoellick, @micheleflournoy, and TAG Senior Advisor @jasonfurman

TAG Senior Advisor Ashley J. Tellis: "At a time when the trading system is broadly fracturing, the threats of protectionism is something we need to talk about"

TAG Senior Advisor Ashley J. Tellis on #APT2020: "There is a big canvas that this report touches upon. We won't be able to do full justice to the entirety of the report."

TAG Senior Advisor Ashley J. Tellis: " #APT2020 makes the argument that Asia is likely to lead-the comeback in the global economy because they have best-managed the pandemic."

. @authorzoellick: "Asia is a step ahead on #COVID19, but this is a global pandemic. Until we deal with this fundamentally on a global level, we won't have a full recovery."

Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick) on the "K-shaped recovery"

- the upper leg is still thriving
- the lower leg is struggling

Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick) on China:

"Next year will be the next five year plan....we will see more vertical integration, more effort to have internal supply chains, but at the same time they don't want to close themselves off internationally." #APT2020

TAG Senior Advisor Ashley J. Tellis directs the next Q to TAG Senior Advisor @jasonfurman

"How do you see the U.S. performing with respect to the #COVID19 recovery? Will we be able to sustain the dynamic market that gives Asians access and sustains the global recovery?"

TAG Senior Advisor @jasonfurman: The United States' story is a massive economic shock, but also an enormous policy response. These two forces fought to a rough draw of a medium-sized recovery.

TAG Senior Advisor @jasonfurman: "The U.S. political system dysfunction is on full display right now."

Despite enormous fiscal space, we are seeing no action from the United States

TAG Senior Advisor @jasonfurman: "The obvious solution is a larger fiscal expansion in the United States. There is a small chance that Secretary Mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi reach an agreement."

TAG Senior Advisor @jasonfurman: "We don't want to wait for a vaccine" to get #COVID19 under control.

"There's only so much fiscal or monetary policy that we can do to clean up a failed health response."

TAG Senior Advisor Ashley J. Tellis to @micheleflournoy

- Will the U.S. be able to sustain defense budgets to protect the international system in the coming years?

. @micheleflournoy at #APT2020: "You won't see draconian cuts" in defense spending because people recognize the threat of China, Russia, and climate change. But you may see "flatter" defense spending trends.

. @micheleflournoy at #APT2020: The greatest danger to our security posture in Asia is "the narrative of U.S. decline...We have to reinvigorate our alliances."

TAG Senior Advisor Ashley J. Tellis to @micheleflournoy: what does "spending smarter mean?"

@micheleflournoy: we have to leverage emerging tech (5G, hypersonics, quantum computing) to reclaim a technological and decision-making edge.

TAG Senior Advisor Ashley J. Tellis to @jasonfurman: "Is a decoupling agenda with China desirable, possible, and/or necessary?"

TAG Senior Advisor @jasonfurman: Decoupling to the extreme is "undesirable"

- We are trying to take down investment barriers in China even as we talk about decoupling

- If we succeed in the opening, then we will invest more in China. If we don't succeed, investment will fall

TAG Senior Advisor @jasonfurman: Decoupling is much less about a trade deficit with China but about whether China is creating a level-playing field for U.S. companies.

U.S. has some leverage for "continued integration" with China but on "global marketplace terms."

TAG Senior Advisor Ashley J. Tellis: In the data realm, there are problems because major Asian economies (China, India) have different views of what the digital economy should look like.

Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick): "There will be decoupling in the data area...the question to watch is whether any personalized data is seen as a national security threat."

Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick): "The United States as a society will have to decide what's the degree of risk, in what sectors?" Domestic data regulations must also connect to the international context.

Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick): Asia will adapt and won't wait for the United States. E.g. Japan is assuming a leading role.

TAG Senior Advisor to Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick) at #APT2020

"Should we be looking to get back into TPP? Where would you put American resources in terms of trade policy?"

Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick): Focus trade agenda on (1) digital, (2) health, (3) environment that have more consensus and potential for wins.

In the @wto, come up with an adjustment on rules on safeguards and also revive the Appellate Body

TAG Senior Advisor @jasonfurman: "The lesson of the last four years is that the United States, regardless of how loud it wants to shout, is only 15 percent of the global economy."

U.S. cannot achieve its goals unilaterally, it can only achieve them together with others

TAG Senior Advisor @jasonfurman: "U.S. greatness lies in the strong alliances we have, the strong friends that we have, and the amount we have in common"

"America plus its friends is way more than 15 percent of the economy. How can we strengthen this?"

Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick): US trade policy has moved to "frontier questions" because our economy is at the frontier. But we are no longer doing this.

TAG Senior Advisor Ashley J. Tellis to @micheleflournoy: "How do we integrate countries that are not our alliance partners but are important for our interests?" #APT2020

. @micheleflournoy: we have to use security assistance "in a much more strategic manner." With each partner, "have a sense of strategy of what we are trying to do together."

"There is opportunity to work with clusters of countries that have a common threat perception"

. @micheleflournoy: "This requires us to take a more nuanced approach to China."

"This is the first time in our history since Nixon that the U.S. has had no strategic dialogue with China."

We need to cooperate on "the next pandemic" and nuclear non-proliferation

TAG Senior Advisor Ashley J. Tellis presents audience questions at #APT2020

- Is the K-shaped recovery due to preexisting economic divides? What is the foundation for the belief in a K-shaped recovery?

Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick): Developing countries have greater long-term risks unlike in the 2008 global financial crisis where they served as drivers of growth.

Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick): "You have to understand what Asia's connection points are to EU, North America, and other points of the world."

TAG Senior Advisor @jasonfurman: "All recessions are K-shaped"...but if you put all your response into monetary policy, it's tools will benefit higher income rather than the middle class.

. @micheleflournoy at #APT2020: We should expect a China that is confident in its capabilities, that will continue to test the boundaries of what is acceptable behavior.

- more use island-building
- trying to create more fait accompli situations
- sharp rhetoric

Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick) at #APT2020: There is a combination of a stronger China, but also not necessarily a more confident one.

This leads to a behavior that sometimes leads to overreach.

Amb. Bob Zoellick ( @authorzoellick): "For an effective United States, you have to treat people with respect and be reliable. If you have transactional diplomacy, you won't be reliable."

Meredith Webster concludes the #APT2020 launch event, and highlights the full-report available at:

https://theasiagroup.com/asia-power-trends-2020/