. @SteveRattner on @Morning_Joe just now: “There is a surprising amount of belief on Wall Street that a Biden presidency would actually be better for the economy and therefore perhaps for the stock market than a Trump presidency.” He backs it up with @MoodysAnalytics estimates.
With a Dem sweep of WH, Senate & House, Rattner says, “Moody’s is projecting 4.2-percent growth per year over the next four years … worst-case in the minds of Moody’s and other Wall Street analysts is that the Republicans sweep, and that produces the lowest rate of GDP growth.”
Rattner on jobs: “A Dem sweep produces vastly more jobs, 7.4 million jobs to be precise, than the worst-case of Trump retaining the WH + gaining control of Congress. In fact, [Biden as POTUS] would bring # of total jobs back above where it was before in the next couple of years.”
Biden besting Trump on job creation, Rattner says, “makes Wall Street excited. Yes, there may be higher [corporate] taxes, but Wall Street believes it will be offset by a steadier hand at the tiller, by more stimulus, by better trade relationships with other countries."
. @SteveRattner then points out the fact that “stock-market performance under the Democrats has actually been better over at least the last 60 or so years than it has been under the Republicans … Dems averaged 9.9% growth per year, the Republicans have averaged 6.5% per year.”
“When Trump sends out tweets saying that a Joe Biden presidency will destroy the stock market, it doesn’t comport either with what Wall Street is thinking today nor with what is happening historically or even his own performance,” Rattner says.
Rattner’s finish: “Wall Street likes certainty, they like predictability, they like knowing what happens next … in many years of watching this, I’m surprised by how much positive feeling there is around possibility of [Biden as POTUS], both for the economy and the stock market.”
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