A few days ago, I pointed out that while testing dynamics are totally different in the 2nd wave vs the first wave in Europe (meaning that we cannot compare absolute numbers of cases), there are also countries that have more deaths...

At the time, I showed the chart for the Czech Republic, and many were upset that I had chosen (cherry picked) such and obscure country. But it is not a situation that is isolated to the Czech Republic (or Czechia as is also called). Several countries have a Czech-like dynamic...

Russia, is another example...Deaths are now also above the peak of the first wave...

Romania is another example

Poland is another example

I am not arguing that the 2nd wave is worse than the 1st. It would be very strange if that was the case, since the 1st wave came without much warning and overwhelmed large hospital systems in places like Milan and Madrid. This time, there was no surprise as such, just complacency

What I am saying is that even when we know about the virus, there are examples of too much relaxation causing second waves that are bigger than the first wave, including for the fatality parameter. Russia, Poland, Romania and Czechia are examples of that.

This does not mean that full-scale lockdown is the only way forward. Spain is already showing that localized measures can have a big impact, and reduce Rt. But it does show that if you do nothing, you are very much at risk of getting a big outbreak, and deaths do follow cases

CFRs have come down for sure, but they have stabilized over the last few months, so any further increase in cases from here will translate into higher fatalities, as our daily projection shows https://twitter.com/ExanteData/status/1316499795381542913

I will leave it at that. I will have some more to say about the disaggregated data (and as hinted, it is not looking as bad as the aggregate European numbers). But that is for another thread, so END.