Read on Twitter
Ok 2 different friends messaged me simultaneously fretting about the PA voter registration numbers referenced in this Edsall piece, so I might as well turn my replies into a quick "if you really want to worry about PA, worry about the right things" thread. https://twitter.com/lara_putnam/status/1316436028517949440
First of all: the right person to be following for PA voter stats is @nick_field90, who actually knows the people & places involved. His summaries of regional trends are always spot on. Which is crucial, bc this state contains universes https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/
2nd of all, as Field says the great majority of Dems re-registering as GOP were already voting GOP by 2016. Now they're gone for good. The realignment underway is real & impactful. For great, nuanced reporting on how this looks on the ground see eg links
https://twitter.com/lara_putnam/status/1292470647155761153
https://twitter.com/lara_putnam/status/1292470647155761153
3rd: it’s become clear the pandemic hit Dem voter registration efforts hard & GOP registration much less so. Probly a combination of reasons. Counties where Dem registration would have been happening have been harder hit by COVID & so faced larger, longer restrictions on activity
And Dem organizations have taken COVID more seriously and shied away from face 2 face campaigns until recently. As @Fisher_DanaR & I pointed out here, that's been costly. There's just no virtual substitute for shoe-leather local outreach https://prospect.org/politics/door-knocking-in-a-life-or-death-campaign/
So eg this article on the potential impact of Latino voters in PA includes lots of interest, much of it not discouraging for Dems, but this detail also jumped out: IE group CASA had planned to register 7000 voters in PA & ended up downsizing goal to 1900 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/13/biden-latino-voters-could-be-key-for-biden-victory
But meanwhile 4th: one thing I hadn't focused on was how last yr's new elections law's combination of early in-person balloting+satellite locations+extended registration deadlines create highly visible community voting days *while registration is still possible*. That's new in PA
And smart community power groups are making the most of it. Everyone I know who went by the Homewood voting site last weekend said it was amazing. Coming up this wknd: Hill District! https://twitter.com/pablackvotes/status/1316502590952280066
It reminds me of the creative work @noveyator & others have done with Baltimore Votes, making election block parties part of substantive & sustained / wraparound voter engagement https://www.forbes.com/sites/civicnation/2019/06/13/this-community-organizer-is-helping-baltimore-residents-find-their-voice-at-the-polls/#51f892b04b00
Anyway. Long story short. If you're worrying about PA voter registration trends because you want to use them as tea leaves re voter preference/voter enthusiasm/November results, just, don't. A) there are less noisy data for that (like, eg polls?) & B) why read tea leaves at all?
The most interesting PA voter reg commentary I've seen recently is fr @4st8, showing how each cohort's registratn stats give us the world of their youth captured in amber: bc people so often don't change reg even when they've changed allegiance long ago https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1315849331715514373
, showing how each cohort's registratn stats give us the world of their youth captured in amber: bc people so often don't change reg even when they've changed allegiance long ago https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1315849331715514373
Imagine Fayette & Greene in the 1960s, where Dem allegiance was so overwhelming among union miners & their families that a half century & massive swings later, 2/3 of that age group is *still* registered Dem. https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1315846636929781760
It wasn't doomscrolling & tea leaf reading that made that happen. And it wasn't distant politicians staying on message and trusting demography would be destiny. It was people acting together to convince others that changing the future was in their hands.
Updating this thread with the definitive analysis from @nick_field90 of voter registration trends in PA since August 31. Big picture: GOP consolidates Trump supporters; COVID undercuts college vote https://www.penncapital-star.com/election-2020/in-the-home-stretch-republicans-further-narrow-dems-voter-registration-edge-analysis/
