Ok 2 different friends messaged me simultaneously fretting about the PA voter registration numbers referenced in this Edsall piece, so I might as well turn my replies into a quick "if you really want to worry about PA, worry about the right things" thread. https://twitter.com/lara_putnam/status/1316436028517949440">https://twitter.com/lara_putn...
2nd of all, as Field says the great majority of Dems re-registering as GOP were already voting GOP by 2016. Now they& #39;re gone for good. The realignment underway is real & impactful. For great, nuanced reporting on how this looks on the ground see eg linkshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten"> https://twitter.com/lara_putnam/status/1292470647155761153">https://twitter.com/lara_putn...
3rd: it’s become clear the pandemic hit Dem voter registration efforts hard & GOP registration much less so. Probly a combination of reasons. Counties where Dem registration would have been happening have been harder hit by COVID & so faced larger, longer restrictions on activity
And Dem organizations have taken COVID more seriously and shied away from face 2 face campaigns until recently. As @Fisher_DanaR & I pointed out here, that& #39;s been costly. There& #39;s just no virtual substitute for shoe-leather local outreach https://prospect.org/politics/door-knocking-in-a-life-or-death-campaign/">https://prospect.org/politics/...
So eg this article on the potential impact of Latino voters in PA includes lots of interest, much of it not discouraging for Dems, but this detail also jumped out: IE group CASA had planned to register 7000 voters in PA & ended up downsizing goal to 1900 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/13/biden-latino-voters-could-be-key-for-biden-victory">https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...
But meanwhile 4th: one thing I hadn& #39;t focused on was how last yr& #39;s new elections law& #39;s combination of early in-person balloting+satellite locations+extended registration deadlines create highly visible community voting days *while registration is still possible*. That& #39;s new in PA
And smart community power groups are making the most of it. Everyone I know who went by the Homewood voting site last weekend said it was amazing. Coming up this wknd: Hill District! https://twitter.com/pablackvotes/status/1316502590952280066">https://twitter.com/pablackvo...
It reminds me of the creative work @noveyator & others have done with Baltimore Votes, making election block parties part of substantive & sustained / wraparound voter engagement #51f892b04b00">https://www.forbes.com/sites/civicnation/2019/06/13/this-community-organizer-is-helping-baltimore-residents-find-their-voice-at-the-polls/ #51f892b04b00">https://www.forbes.com/sites/civ...
Anyway. Long story short. If you& #39;re worrying about PA voter registration trends because you want to use them as tea leaves re voter preference/voter enthusiasm/November results, just, don& #39;t. A) there are less noisy data for that (like, eg polls?) & B) why read tea leaves at all?
The most interesting PA voter reg commentary I& #39;ve seen recently is fr @4st8https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">, showing how each cohort& #39;s registratn stats give us the world of their youth captured in amber: bc people so often don& #39;t change reg even when they& #39;ve changed allegiance long ago https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1315849331715514373">https://twitter.com/4st8/stat...
Imagine Fayette & Greene in the 1960s, where Dem allegiance was so overwhelming among union miners & their families that a half century & massive swings later, 2/3 of that age group is *still* registered Dem. https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1315846636929781760">https://twitter.com/4st8/stat...
It wasn& #39;t doomscrolling & tea leaf reading that made that happen. And it wasn& #39;t distant politicians staying on message and trusting demography would be destiny. It was people acting together to convince others that changing the future was in their hands.
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