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To @CT_Bergstrom, @mlipsitch and others whom I respect:
- I agree that the GB plan for surrender appeals to a WH that would like a justification for having done nothing.
I agree that adopting the GB plan would be a horrible mistake.
But …
1/N
- I agree that the GB plan for surrender appeals to a WH that would like a justification for having done nothing.
I agree that adopting the GB plan would be a horrible mistake.
But …
1/N
But note the asymmetry.
- There is a GB plan. I could explain it to my mother.
- If the GB plan is terrible (and it is) then there must exist a better plan. Why can’t the critics explain what that better plan is?
2/N
- There is a GB plan. I could explain it to my mother.
- If the GB plan is terrible (and it is) then there must exist a better plan. Why can’t the critics explain what that better plan is?
2/N
- Why does the specificity of the attack on the GB plan turn to mush when it is time to outline the alternative?
Quoting from their oped '“Flatten the curve” was a good idea ... and it still is. ‘ I cannot explain that plan to my mother.
3/N
Quoting from their oped '“Flatten the curve” was a good idea ... and it still is. ‘ I cannot explain that plan to my mother.
3/N
Why the hand-wavy metaphor?
Why are there no specifics about
- This is what we can do.
- This is how long we might have to do it.
- And I’m a big believer in masks, but preaching about this over and over, is simply not working.
4/N
Why are there no specifics about
- This is what we can do.
- This is how long we might have to do it.
- And I’m a big believer in masks, but preaching about this over and over, is simply not working.
4/N
And if we are going to be the representatives of science lets be honest.
- We live in a democracy.
- We’ve known for months that a large fraction of the population is simply not going to respond to the queries posed by contact tracers
- So how are we going to respond?
5/N
- We live in a democracy.
- We’ve known for months that a large fraction of the population is simply not going to respond to the queries posed by contact tracers
- So how are we going to respond?
5/N
A. We can adopt a preachy tone and stick to the received dogma, which requires that every use of the word “testing" has to be part of a list that involves the word “tracing.”
B. We can come up with a feasible alternative — test and isolate — that works when tracing fails
6/N
B. We can come up with a feasible alternative — test and isolate — that works when tracing fails
6/N
I think that @jaybvarkey got it exactly right when he said that the GB plan is the natural result of the LACK [sic] of a strategy.
But that lack is a sign of a catastrophic intellectual failure by the public health and epi-modeling communities.
7/N
But that lack is a sign of a catastrophic intellectual failure by the public health and epi-modeling communities.
7/N
If they want to engage in virtue signaling, if they think it is enough to claim the moral high-ground, by all means, let them ignore that views expressed by many voters. They can keep preaching the same sermon, with same metaphors and platitudes, over and over.
8/N
8/N
But if they want to have a real effect on policy,
if they want to save lives,
if they want to respect the desire for a return to normal,
- they need to adopt a more pragmatic approach.
- they need to ask "what can we offer that would be acceptable to voters?"
9/N
if they want to save lives,
if they want to respect the desire for a return to normal,
- they need to adopt a more pragmatic approach.
- they need to ask "what can we offer that would be acceptable to voters?"
9/N
They need to ask, “what might actually work?”
And they need to be honest about what they are suggesting. And explain it clearly.
10/N
And they need to be honest about what they are suggesting. And explain it clearly.
10/N
I’ve read over and over that “opening up slowly” is part of their plan, but given what I know about the dynamics of the spread of this or any virus, I have no idea what “slowly” means or why it might matter.
11/N
11/N
And if they truly think that cycling in and out of lockdown is a better plan that adopting the GB surrender, they should say so and explain why
And if not, they should explain how they plan to suppress the virus for the many months to come without falling back on lockdown
12/N
And if not, they should explain how they plan to suppress the virus for the many months to come without falling back on lockdown
12/N
If periodic lockdown is better, say so and explain why.
If it isn’t reuired, explain how they plan to prevent a return to exponential growth of infections
If they think that a prolonged period of depressed economic activity is necessary, say so and defend this choice
13/N
If it isn’t reuired, explain how they plan to prevent a return to exponential growth of infections
If they think that a prolonged period of depressed economic activity is necessary, say so and defend this choice
13/N
If test and isolate can protect professors at Harvard, why can’t it protect public school teachers?
If it can protect basketball players, why can’t it protect meatpackers?
14/N
If it can protect basketball players, why can’t it protect meatpackers?
14/N
If the government in China can afford to test every resident in a city, why can’t the government here do the in the US?
15/N
15/N
