Thread by @firefoxx66, We do not have to choose between lives & livelihoods when fighting [...]

We do not have to choose between lives & livelihoods when fighting #SARSCoV2 - through effective #TestTraceIsolate & suppression, we can allow *everyone* to take part in an open society.

Join myself & more than 80 other #COVID19 scientists & experts - sign the #JohnSnowMemo https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1316507074415779840">https://twitter.com/TheLancet...

https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1316507074415779840

Why & #39;John Snow& #39;? It& #39;s not just because winter is coming! John Snow is considered one of the founders of epidemiology - he traced a cholera outbreak in London to a water pump & removed the handle to curb transmission. Quick effective action saves lives!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow ">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John...

The letter says it best, but why do we stand against & #39;targeted shielding& #39; & & #39;natural herd immunity& #39;?
1. We do not fully understand immunity to #SARSCoV2 - we don& #39;t know how effective it is, or how long it lasts. It& #39;s irresponsible to lean on something we don& #39;t know will work.

2. & #39;Natural herd immunity& #39; doesn& #39;t mean eradication. We had herd immunity to diseases like smallpox & measles before we had vaccines - but they did not disappear & caused countless lost lives & disability every year, until a vaccine was found.

3. Shielding sounds good in theory but is incredibly hard in practice. At least 20% of UK population would need to shield - we don& #39;t know how we& #39;d do this, with a virus raging outside the door, ensuring absolutely none gets in. What about people who don& #39;t know they& #39;re vulnerable?

4. It& #39;s also very unequal - we don& #39;t know how long people will need to shield, or how will they feel about being entirely cut off from society. There& #39;s a risk of exacerbating many inequalities & disparities, & decreasing quality of life for an extended period of time.

5. There is still so much we don& #39;t know about #SARSCoV2 - it& #39;s irresponsible to ask the bulk of the population to contract a virus we do not fully understand. Even rare outcomes in & #39;young & healthy& #39; people will affect thousands if we are infecting the entire population.

We have evidence the virus can cause damage to some organs & in some people leads to & #39;long COVID& #39;. Even if none of these apply, it& #39;s not uncommon to spend a week or more completely out of action. Nobody should be condemned to this. I certainly have no interest in getting #COVID19

So what do we suggest instead? We believe the best way to save both #LivesAndLivelihoods is by effectively suppressing the virus - making participating in society safer for *everyone*.

But this requires commitment to reducing cases, excellent #TestandTrace & effective measures

We must demand an overhaul of ineffective #TestandTrace systems. We need to be able to trace down outbreaks rapidly & stop them quickly.

We must base our restrictions, if cases rise, in science, not wishful thinking. On what& #39;s effective not what& #39;s easy.

We have seen through other countries that through suppression we can *all* enjoy more normal, open lives, & return to behaviours & activities that support livelihoods. Until a vaccine is available, that is what we should strive for.

#LivesAndLivelihoods #SARSCoV2 #COVID19

Oh dear - and I forgot the link! Please join us - sign here! http://johnsnowmemo.com"> http://johnsnowmemo.com

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