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I have been in DC for more than a year now and I'm struck by the soul searching going on in the US expert community regarding what to do in the #MiddleEast. Numerous articles discuss a potential #US "withdrawal" from the Middle East. Here is a thread and a reading list:
A first dimension of this debate is a 2016 article from Andrew J Bacevich, making a general case against interventionism and a call to "end endless wars". https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-08-03/ending-endless-war
But I feel that the discussion intensified in 2019 when voices like @Martin_Indyk, a Peace Process veteran, echoed similar concerns based on the analysis that only few vital American interests were still at stake in the Middle East. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-middle-east-isnt-worth-it-anymore-11579277317
Similar arguments have been made by other distinguished American Middle East experts, like @aarondmiller2 & Richard Sokolsky, who explain the US could adapt to oil crises or security challenges without such a big military footprint,.... https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/03/the-middle-east-just-doesnt-matter-as-much-any-longer-407820
...or @tcwittes & Mara Karlin, who described the "purgatory" of the US trying to retreat without having designed the right strategy for it. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2018-12-11/americas-middle-east-purgatory
Mara Karlin & @tcwittes recently doubled down on their case and described in another article how the US could "do more with less" in the Middle East. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-09-15/how-do-more-less-middle-east
The "withdrawal" rationale has been pushed even further in this article by @JustinTLogan who argues that funding for military operation in the Middle East should simply be cut. https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/defund-centcom/
These discussions also have a generational dimension for experts whose foreign policy career began with the 9/11. @brhodes, former Obama advisor, reflected on this in the @TheAtlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/its-not-september-12-anymore/609502/
And @ilangoldenberg made a similar case in the @washingtonpost based on a first assessment of the impact of #Covid_19. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/19/trump-china-bush-iraq/
Beyond the idea that US foreign policy has to enter a new phase, a number of prominent voices, like my boss @robsatloff, have expressed skepticism about the notion that the US had to leave the Middle East and warned against its false promises. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2019-04-16/commitment-issues
Others, like @stevenacook, recently made another strong case against the "exit" and instead stressed the need to prioritize (contain Iran, protecting sealines, Israël, East Med...).... https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-13/no-exit
My colleague @MichaelSinghDC showed the limit of the notion of "endless wars" that dominates the discussion. He argues that "The real antidote to “endless war” is more disciplined policymaking" and more limited use of force with clear, realistic aims. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/11/06/why-talk-endless-wars-misses-mark/
In another paper, @MichaelSinghDC also discussed whether the Middle East is a distraction from "great power competition", or a theater for it, concluding that "despite its superficial charms, a policy of withdrawal would run counter to self-interest." https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/u.s.-policy-in-the-middle-east-amid-great-power-competition
Since the discussion on a potential US "withdrawal" has started, a number of commentators, like Ezzedine Choukri Fishere, have also warned about the risk to be pulled back in the Middle East, at a higher price. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/27/us-withdrawal-middle-east-is-costly-mirage/
Despite calls to end "endless wars", it has been pointed out, e.g. by @IgnatiusPost, that the US hasn't actually left and that the recipe for the US to stay was "small numbers, low casualty, good partners & adversaries who frighten their neighbors". https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/theres-no-sign-the-us-is-leaving-the-middle-east-soon-and-thats-a-good-thing/2020/07/16/f143ddc2-c799-11ea-b037-f9711f89ee46_story.html
But one interesting dimension of this debate pointed out by @WillWechsler is that the potential withdrawal is not based on a change in US capacities but a change in the will to be in the Middle East, which has emboldened US adversaries. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/MENA-Chapter-one.pdf
At the end, the issue of a US withdrawal is as much about perception than facts. The big question is whether this think tanks debate has a self fulfilling dimension. To which extent will it influence the calculus of actors in the Middle East and of US policy makers?
Feel free to add below other articles that I may have missed ! (END)
