Loading up some charts --

(1) US Data Surprise (Yellow) vs $SPX. YES, stocks attention on stimulus (post-Election/Biden breeze view) + shortage of financial assets + sector shifts ...and less on momentum of economy ...

@Callum_Thomas @sunchartist $MACRO

(2) Global Data Surprise (White) vs US 10yr -- this also looks probably like growth -- > divot, policy response + surge, and next chapter a retrace/loss momentum until early 2021/22. The 10y range is pegged; should stay pegged

(3) Q3 GDP on Oct 29, but that's old new and in the price(s). More of interest is momentum into 2021, and could Q4 GDP (estimates below) be negative? Given quarterly swings in GDP in 2020, why not; and what does that mean for assets & policy response(s).

(4) Biden win/sweep fever has infected markets past few weeks --- I actually believe the polls, just have some uncertainty about the days/weeks post Election and how markets handle that. I understood $SPX Sept to the June high. Now 3400 and that low also matter most

(5) Biden win/sweep fever met the supply-set-up last week in rates, right to top of range, and now comes the squeeze around that. Ie. 30y to Aug highs (below), 5s/30s to range support, and the bounce. How crowded is this?

(6) Well, if CFTC data is a proxy, there's a decent short-base (altho not really tested/squeezed) should risk/Election get messy. Below is combined Spec Net position in US +WN futs (US futs more pronounced selling past few weeks) vs 5s/30s curve (blue). I like $TLT calls.

(7) US long duration also helped by the grabfest in long-end of Europe -- Italy, Spain, Austria etc. ECB QE expansion + rising COVID + much further from inflation targets, etc. Here is Italy 30yr

(8) Which brings to "chart of the week" nomination, courtesy of the fine people @DeutscheBank .... Italian yields to 1310...

(9) The reach for duration is upticking the $ Value of Negative Yielding debt (below), which has broader implications for global rates/curves, nominal and real rates, alternatives ($XAU $XBT) etc, and risk. Also just reminds that rates are here for a reason.

(10) A few other charts.

The Biden win/breeze trade shows in Clean Energy ($ICLN) vs dirty ($XLE)

(11) Also shows in $XLE (White) and Banks ($KBE, Orange) --- I still dislike banks (low for longer, more credit issues, flat(ter) curves, pegged rates and 2021-22 regulatory risks from Biden etc).

(12) sticking a thumb at the banks and $KBE further (below), the long term chart is bearish until proven otherwise, and aims to <$20 into next year. Feel like a lot of bottom feeding has gone into financials; likewise $SX7E which seems poised for another run to the 2020 lows

(13) EM FX also fits the same bucket of poor performing despite USD tone and general risk-on. Here is JPM EMFX Index (White) vs $SX7E (European fins)

(14) Again on EM, JPM EMFX lagged not just CNH and USD heaviness, but also outright performance of $EEM etf. Maybe that makes sense, and to note EEM/SPY looks similar to FX performance.

(15) Still like $USDJPY downside into early 2021; get the benefit of US rates (relationship upticking), expected (further) fall in US Real Rates, and risk-off protection around pre or post-Election. 3-month 98 one-touches; sell those after the delta expands

(16) Taking a longer look at $USDJPY, where is the broader "trap-door" on this chart? And what sort of anxiety does that reveal for policymakers, global long-ends etc. Could be a super-interesting mid-2021 topic. $FXY calls

(17) Last chart, longer view around $XAU. As long as we stay above 1800, thinking 2021-22 trade is towards 2500. Obviously the recent wash around shakes the tree a bit, but no long-term structural damage. Would feel better too if/when 1950 is cleared

/ ends