Lesson from Israel: Do not open schools with a high number of daily cases and high infection rates (R around 1). This will fuel a further surge

Analysis of two populations (secular and orthodox) who opened schools at different times, reaching similar outcomes >>>

@EricTopol

In the secular (non-arab, non-orthodox) population:

1. Surge started a few days after school opening

2. Rise started in kids (including 0–10 years of age), and only then spread to the adults

3. The spread was faster in kids than adults and was highest in kids 0–10 years of age

Here is the growth rate R:

R>1: Pandemic spreads
R<1: Pandemic contracts

When we opened schools, R was around 1, and the pandemic was stable, albeit at a high number of cases

The highest rate of spread was two weeks after opening schools, in kids 0–10 years of age

In the orthodox population, boarding schools for boys ("yeshivot") 15–21 years of age opened Aug. 21, and they were largely isolated there

About 10 days later, a huge surge only in this isolated age group

But after two weeks, spread to the younger and older age groups

The surge in the orthodox reached an alarming outbreak rate of R=2, after which R increased in the older population, though never to an R of 2