Out now: My new analysis on what realizing the 2060 carbon neutrality vision would mean for China and the world. A thread on a few key observations from a week of digesting the scenarios and the numbers. https://www.carbonbrief.org/influential-academics-reveal-how-china-can-achieve-its-carbon-neutrality-goal

One: 2060 is not that far away, IF you take the aim seriously and work back from the target year. For example...

...the power sector will need to get to zero emissions by around 2050. That means any new coal plant permitted now will have no more than 25 years of life. Existing ones will have to retire at 30 years on average, even without new permits given out.

Two: The amount of clean energy is awe-inspiring. By 2050, China will need to increase combined wind, solar and nuclear capacity almost 10-fold to enable not just emissions free power but replacing most fuel use in transport, industry, heating with electricity.

This means China will have 4x current GLOBAL solar capacity and 3x current global wind power generating capacity.

Three: However, translating the total capacity needed into required annual installations makes the targets seem almost pedestrian, given scale that these industries have reached in China already. Average non-fossil energy installations will have to about double from 2015-20.

Four: Managing the phase-out of the fossil industry will be the larger challenge; the Chinese system is very good at mobilizing investment.

Five: The challenge will be even larger for fossil fuel exporting countries who are hit by the double whammy of China's energy transition and import substitution ("dual circulation") policies. Fossil fuel exports can be squeezed out fast.

Six: Taking the long-term goal means faster clean energy take-up and emissions cuts in the next decade than is currently being proposed. There is a big "ambition gap" between targets for 2030 and rate of progress that would be needed thereafter.