1. Ok bottomline on Pelosi-Mnuchin. Some folks seem to misconstrue me and it seems that arguing about it only further enflames misunderstanding. My position is that MAYBE Pelosi is making a tactical mistake. Tactical means she's right on substance as I've always emphasized
2. The heavy in the situation is clearly Illegitimate Trump and #MoscowMitch and what desperately needs to be done is to get them out of power
3. I personally am pretty confident we will get them out-though this does not mean we should be complacent
4. The problem is however, is that there is a big gap between the election Nov 3 and when Joe-Kamala get in-late January 2021. Even then it will take them some time to get a deal down and out to the American people
5. Assuming they even get the Senate they still will have to quickly resolve to either do budget reconciliation and/or end the filibuster. If they don't win the Senate this is all moot
6. Assuming they pass a new relief bill quickly it would take a little time to get out. So realistically at the earliest-IF the Dems don't negotiate against themselves on ending the filibuster-you will geat aid out will be in February 2021
7. So it's realistically 3 and a half months in best case scenario-assuming they win WH and Senate and assuming they don't insist on trying to do a deal with GOP votes
8. 3 and a half months might not seem like a long time but it's very long for the 40 million Americans facing eviction this winter. Making it retroactively will be too late-they will already be evicted/homeless.
9. Hence the urgency to do something BEFORE Nov 3. It certainly seems obvious to me that Trump will have no interest in a deal post election if he loses. Nor will the GOP co-conspirators-they'd rather hurt Biden-like they did Obama 2009-2010
11. Trump on the other hand just doesn't GF either way-he just wants to win reelection. He's been all over the map, last week he said he wanted no deal now he says he wants a big deal. I do believe here he is desperate as a last gasp election ploy
12. So Speaker Pelosi-Mnuchin this is where the point of contention comes in. While the GOP Senate continues to reduce it's offer-from 1 T to 650 B to now just 500 B, Trump-Mnuchin have raised offer from 1 T to 1.3 T to 1.6 T to 1.8 T.
13. Yes the Dems passed the Heroes Act in May for $3.4 T. It was certainly the optimal outcome but alas the GOP still has power-for now. The Dems then made a goodfaith decrease to 2.4 then 2.2 trillion.
14. Note however that at least on baseline the two sides-Pelosi-Mnuchin-are not far apart. Yet every time they meet all we hear is that they're still miles apart.
15. Trouble is time is running out. My premise is it's now or never, if we get no deal now we will never get one until Joe and the Democrats can get it out next year-mid February at the earliest
16. So folks who actually need the help now have some sense of urgency-they want a deal. And this comes to the question about Pelosi-is she interested in a deal or is she happy with waiting until next year? If the latter that's catastrophic for those who need it now
17. There's concern that with all the handwrigning and that King Hamlet routine -'To be or not to be' time will run out and nothing will happen for four months. Again for those who need help now a very long lull
18. So I've raised the question-is Pelosi making a mistake in not taking a deal as Mnuchin has now moved much closer to her? Many of my friends are upset with me for raising the question but for those who need the money now it doesn't matter who gets blame
19. BUT what has frustrated me is that folks presume I'm answering a question I'm only asking. I'm asking is Pelosi making a tactical mistake? Or is she negotiating masterfully?
20. The answer won't be settled now. It won't be until when-if-there's a deal. If they get a deal before the election then you can say-and I would say-she's been right all along. But if there isn't then it will be clear she made a tactical mistake. THE END
21. Anyway I've tried to unpack all this and am now going to take a break on any further arguments about it. If I don't answer you in the future it's not that I'm ticked at you-LOL-it's just that this thread touches most of the bases
22. I don't mean I'll never comment about it again-but may not go down in rabbit hole of endless arguing with those who don't agree. Time will tell
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