Lo and behold, Caucasus/FSU watchers. @ratishub and I have updated forecasts for the 2020 Parliamentary Elections on http://pollster.ge ! Here's the thread (1/n)

Indeed, the Georgian Dream is experiencing a sort of a Covid counterpunch (after a huge Covid-bump in spring and summer). As the number of cases and deaths is growing exponentially across the country, the party has seen a significant decrease in poll numbers.

While in late August, they polled 53%, now polling averages decreased to 47%. Indeed the opposition has gained in polls, but these changes are not that dramatic. As our Bayesian model shows, none of the parties but the GD will be able to squeak through a 40% threshold.

As it stands, the GD is expected to win ~56 seats through proportional polls. That leaves it with 20 seats short of a simple majority. Therefore, they will be focusing on races in single-member districts.

Things to watch: - whether the GD is able to win 20 majoritarian seats, - if not, with whom they decide to establish a coalition, - whether there will be any major scandals similar to prison videos in 2012, or Partskhaladze in 2016.