[Thread]
Let's take a look at the evidence underpinning the @fmwales decision to ban travel from Covid hotspots other parts of the UK.

Mark Drakeford has pointed to three pieces of evidence underpinning his decision.

1. Waste water analysis found similarities in virus strains in North Wales and the NW of England.

This technique was developed at Bangor Uni & monitors the amount of virus RNA (equivalent to our DNA).

According to the FM the similarities suggest transmission from Liverpool.

2. Research from the Public Health Wales Pathogen Genomics Unit and Cardiff University School of Biosciences.

This looks at mutation in the virus to work out where the original source of infection in an area came from.

This paper read: "We have been analysing evidence for importation of lineages into Wales, particularly from England. This shows that early on in the pandemic a high proportion of cases could be linked to imports, with the number decreasing significantly following lockdown."

It added that the evidence does seem to suggest that the proportion of cases that could be related back to new introductions (from places outside Wales) "began to rise again during July and August, coinciding with UK-wide lockdown relaxations".

It concludes: "We have been analysing evidence for importation of lineages into Wales, particularly from England. This shows that early on in the pandemic a high proportion of cases could be linked to imports, with the number decreasing significantly following lockdown."

3. Other research has shown that 80% of new infections are spread by super spreaders.

The Welsh Government believes this shows the danger of one spreader bringing the virus into a community.

Is this evidence enough?
All unfolding and developing science is constantly being improved and checked.
The study from PHW has not been peer reviewed and the paper itself acknowledges it should not be accepted as "a single grand truth".

There is clearly further research needed but the best evidence does seem to point to the fact that travel from areas of high prevalence can spread the virus.

Whether a travel ban is the way to deal with it is of course a matter for debate.

Full story: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/evidence-science-data-coronavirus-travel-19102724