AUTUMN 2020 CORONAVIRUS GROWTH
IN UK, FRANCE, ITALY & SPAIN
APPEARS TO BE MUCH MILDER THAN SPRING

An analysis:

[14 Oct 2020 v1]
[Notes added to charts in grey bubbles are my own.]
[Analysis, opinions & errors my own.]
AUTUMN 2020 CORONAVIRUS GROWTHIN UK, FRANCE, ITALY & SPAINAPPEARS TO BE MUCH MILDER THAN SPRINGAn analysis:[14 Oct 2020 v1][Notes added to charts in grey bubbles are my own.][Analysis, opinions & errors my own.]
AUTUMN 2020 CORONAVIRUS GROWTHIN UK, FRANCE, ITALY & SPAINAPPEARS TO BE MUCH MILDER THAN SPRINGAn analysis:[14 Oct 2020 v1][Notes added to charts in grey bubbles are my own.][Analysis, opinions & errors my own.]
AUTUMN 2020 CORONAVIRUS GROWTHIN UK, FRANCE, ITALY & SPAINAPPEARS TO BE MUCH MILDER THAN SPRINGAn analysis:[14 Oct 2020 v1][Notes added to charts in grey bubbles are my own.][Analysis, opinions & errors my own.]
AUTUMN 2020 CORONAVIRUS GROWTHIN UK, FRANCE, ITALY & SPAINAPPEARS TO BE MUCH MILDER THAN SPRINGAn analysis:[14 Oct 2020 v1][Notes added to charts in grey bubbles are my own.][Analysis, opinions & errors my own.]
Several countries that experienced relatively high fatalities in the spring have seen an autumn increase. The patterns are similar.

Comparing the recent increases to the spring suggests that the underlying situation might be significantly less severe than generally believed.
TESTING: See notes on chart.

Despite numerous issues relating to testing, we will treat the data as accurate here so as to err on the side of caution & good faith. This should give us a worst case picture, with the reality being likely somewhat milder.
DEATHS: See notes on charts. Deaths, whilst not unaffected by testing & other issues, are the most robust data available with which to track the virus (& deduce the pattern of underlying infections).

Viewed using deaths, it is clear that spring was far larger than current rises.
DEATHS: See notes on charts. Deaths, whilst not unaffected by testing & other issues, are the most robust data available with which to track the virus (& deduce the pattern of underlying infections).Viewed using deaths, it is clear that spring was far larger than current rises.
DEATHS: See notes on charts. Deaths, whilst not unaffected by testing & other issues, are the most robust data available with which to track the virus (& deduce the pattern of underlying infections).Viewed using deaths, it is clear that spring was far larger than current rises.
A log chart is used in addition to a regular one to enable better analysis of growth. Constant exponential growth on a log chart appears as a straight, diagonal line, with a steeper slope representing faster growth.

As can be seen, recent growth is much milder than spring.
A log chart is used in addition to a regular one to enable better analysis of growth. Constant exponential growth on a log chart appears as a straight, diagonal line, with a steeper slope representing faster growth.As can be seen, recent growth is much milder than spring.
A log chart is used in addition to a regular one to enable better analysis of growth. Constant exponential growth on a log chart appears as a straight, diagonal line, with a steeper slope representing faster growth.As can be seen, recent growth is much milder than spring.
CASES: Despite the upward distortion caused by testing, cases data are still very revealing & show very similar information to the deaths charts: slower, lower growth & signs of topping.
CASES: Despite the upward distortion caused by testing, cases data are still very revealing & show very similar information to the deaths charts: slower, lower growth & signs of topping.
CASES: Despite the upward distortion caused by testing, cases data are still very revealing & show very similar information to the deaths charts: slower, lower growth & signs of topping.
For cases, a log chart is even more useful, since growth on a linear chart can appear deceptive. Also, due to testing, the recent figures appear higher than the spring. It is, however, the speed & character of growth that interest us and a log chart shows them clearly.
For cases, a log chart is even more useful, since growth on a linear chart can appear deceptive. Also, due to testing, the recent figures appear higher than the spring. It is, however, the speed & character of growth that interest us and a log chart shows them clearly.
For cases, a log chart is even more useful, since growth on a linear chart can appear deceptive. Also, due to testing, the recent figures appear higher than the spring. It is, however, the speed & character of growth that interest us and a log chart shows them clearly.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

The autumn increases appear to be far slower (growth rate) & lower (peaks) than the spring.

Most importantly, deaths, while sadly increased, remain lower & slower than spring.

(This is all visible despite likely upward data distortion due to testing.)
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONThe autumn increases appear to be far slower (growth rate) & lower (peaks) than the spring.Most importantly, deaths, while sadly increased, remain lower & slower than spring.(This is all visible despite likely upward data distortion due to testing.)
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONThe autumn increases appear to be far slower (growth rate) & lower (peaks) than the spring.Most importantly, deaths, while sadly increased, remain lower & slower than spring.(This is all visible despite likely upward data distortion due to testing.)
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONThe autumn increases appear to be far slower (growth rate) & lower (peaks) than the spring.Most importantly, deaths, while sadly increased, remain lower & slower than spring.(This is all visible despite likely upward data distortion due to testing.)
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONThe autumn increases appear to be far slower (growth rate) & lower (peaks) than the spring.Most importantly, deaths, while sadly increased, remain lower & slower than spring.(This is all visible despite likely upward data distortion due to testing.)
Assuming that the virus & environment are not greatly different from spring, a possible explanation for the slower & lower growth might be that the virus is having a harder time finding & infecting a diminishing supply of susceptible people, implying that more people are immune.
@threadreaderapp unroll
You can follow @RuminatorDan.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:
There are a lot of misconceptions about the Turkish diaspora in Germany. Since i just finished writing an essay about this topic I thought it's time to give other people
Read more
Las mejores calculadoras online en 2020A thread http://totumat.com/2020/11/26/las-mejores-calculadoras-online-en-2020/ Cuando se estudian asignaturas que requieren de cálculos complicados, nada mejor que contar con una buena calculadora.
Read more
Mitigating #ClimateChange is as much about taking up new techs as about leaving others behindMost studies focus on #coal's global downfall but another #energy tech decline is loomingRead my new
Read more