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A few notes on the new @IpsosMORIScot findings. First, the fight for this election is less between the SNP and Conservatives, but among the Conservatives, Labour and LibDems for 2nd place. There's an almost 40 point (!) lead at the moment for constituency vote. 1/n https://twitter.com/rachelormston/status/1316333862306414592
It's not an unassailable lead (events, dear boy - May's a long way away), but the SNP could drop at least 10 points and still form a majority.
Movement is normal:
SNP dropped about 6 points from Jan to May in 2016
But Oct before 2011 they were polling at 34% and rose 11
2/n
Movement is normal:
SNP dropped about 6 points from Jan to May in 2016
But Oct before 2011 they were polling at 34% and rose 11
2/n
Any SNP mvmt will obviously depend on other parties faring better or worse as we head to May.
Atm Con vote seems to be holding up better (19% on const vote compared to 23% in 2016). Labour continues its near perfect run of poor polls, down 10 points on 2016 const performance
3/n
Atm Con vote seems to be holding up better (19% on const vote compared to 23% in 2016). Labour continues its near perfect run of poor polls, down 10 points on 2016 const performance
3/n
On the bright side for Labour, its anti indy stance seems to have finally become more in line with what their supporters want. Around 1/5 of those planning to vote Labour would vote Yes, vs 37% (!) of those who backed the party in 2019.
4/n
4/n
The downside for Labour is that this ideological consistency between policy and supporters seems to be happening because they're continuing to shed supporters who aren't hostile to indy. So they're more in line with who they have left, but who they have left ain't much.
n/n
n/n
More on this from @rachelormston and me coming soon.
