A few notes on the new @IpsosMORIScot findings. First, the fight for this election is less between the SNP and Conservatives, but among the Conservatives, Labour and LibDems for 2nd place. There& #39;s an almost 40 point (!) lead at the moment for constituency vote. 1/n https://twitter.com/rachelormston/status/1316333862306414592">https://twitter.com/rachelorm...

It& #39;s not an unassailable lead (events, dear boy - May& #39;s a long way away), but the SNP could drop at least 10 points and still form a majority.

Movement is normal:
SNP dropped about 6 points from Jan to May in 2016
But Oct before 2011 they were polling at 34% and rose 11

2/n

Any SNP mvmt will obviously depend on other parties faring better or worse as we head to May.
Atm Con vote seems to be holding up better (19% on const vote compared to 23% in 2016). Labour continues its near perfect run of poor polls, down 10 points on 2016 const performance

3/n

On the bright side for Labour, its anti indy stance seems to have finally become more in line with what their supporters want. Around 1/5 of those planning to vote Labour would vote Yes, vs 37% (!) of those who backed the party in 2019.
4/n

The downside for Labour is that this ideological consistency between policy and supporters seems to be happening because they& #39;re continuing to shed supporters who aren& #39;t hostile to indy. So they& #39;re more in line with who they have left, but who they have left ain& #39;t much.

n/n

More on this from @rachelormston and me coming soon.