Ok, a thread on where it feels things are up to. Here goes.

(First thing is to say, as noted to me earlier, that the general position seems to change almost by the hour and gets v confusing. V hard to keep up.)

There was growing sense among many I spoke to in the system here yesterday that GM needed to be calling for an immediate national circuit break, as per the eventual position of @UKLabour and @andrewhwestern.

Had heard that view expressed in some quarters (notably public health) well before Labour announced its position at 5pm yesterday. (In fact @andrewhwestern got there well before them.)

As a position it would have the advantage of a) being backed by public health people and Sage and b) aligning with the national party position. Even govt now headed that way, to an extent.

But that was not the collective GM political view yesterday and a statement from the system this morning reflects that.

‘If cases continue to rise as predicted…’ and no extra £ for tier 3, ‘a number of leaders in GM believe a national circuit break, with the required financial support would be a preferable option.’ In other words there isn’t consensus.

Govt will spot that a mile off.

Otherwise the GM statement is long and a little hard to summarise. Basically, they’re holding out. They want a kind of tier 2-plus - tier 2 but with extra enforcement, extra t&t resource, off-sales ban at 10pm.

And, crucially, further discussions. The problem is that the power in this equation lies with government. Both sides are furious. The window for negotiation may have closed.

The statement also highlights that GM’s hospital situation is not currently as bad as Liverpool’s. For some time I’ve been picking up a tension btw many in health - deeply worried - and some pols, who believe things are not as bad as being suggested.

Could be dangerous political territory, but it’s currently the line.

There’s also a growing worry that the region’s leaders are headed into a trap; deaths going up; admissions going up, even if there seems to be some internal dispute over the forecasts. And govt doesn’t like Andy Burnham *to say the least*.

GM - local govt as a whole - feels it has been dealt with very badly. The anger remains real, against the backdrop of how this summer has played out.

The anger in the population as a whole here remains real too, which I think possibly Number 10 are missing. But: govt is determined to make leaders own the current problem and they have identified the political weaknesses to go after.

As it stands, there’s a national gold meeting today re GM. That this has been as widely pushed and briefed as it has (it was a niche reporting sport in the summer) is a further sign govt is serious.

Could GM get put into tier 3 anyway today? Anything's possible. Those I’ve spoken to don’t think it will today, as govt doesn’t want to impose. But as the PM made clear on Mon, he can do that. And GM's numbers are undoubtedly high.

Finally: anyone who thinks a circuit break would mean tiering doesn’t happen anyway may end up disappointed. The govt has just been through huge political drama setting this up. Suspect we’re headed for tier three, circuit break or not.

Confused? Welcome to the club.