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According to the recently released SAGE papers
, keeping universities open plays a greater role in spreading Covid-19 infection -- ~0.3 (0.2-0.5) increase in R -- than any other activity, apart from keeping secondary schools open -- ~0.35 (0.2-0.5). 1/
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf
, keeping universities open plays a greater role in spreading Covid-19 infection -- ~0.3 (0.2-0.5) increase in R -- than any other activity, apart from keeping secondary schools open -- ~0.35 (0.2-0.5). 1/https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf
By contrast:
General directive to work from home where possible decreases R by 0.2-0.4
Closure of bars, pubs, cafés and restaurants decreases R by 0.1-0.2
"Stopping all contacts between different households in the home might reduce Rt by ~0.1-0.2" 2/
General directive to work from home where possible decreases R by 0.2-0.4Closure of bars, pubs, cafés and restaurants decreases R by 0.1-0.2"Stopping all contacts between different households in the home might reduce Rt by ~0.1-0.2" 2/
Closure of indoor gyms, leisure centres, fitness etc.: "reduction in Rt of up to 0.1"Closure of places of worship / community centres: "reduction in Rt of up to 0.1" 3/
As I've noted before, the extent to which the re-opening of universities contributes to the general spread of infection is not given sufficient weight in deliberations among university members. 4/ https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1278377031173054464
, the extent to which the re-opening of universities contributes to the general spread of infection is not given sufficient weight in deliberations among university members. 4/ https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1278377031173054464
The imposition of restrictions on household contacts & hospitality is a consequence of the re-opening of universities without sufficient mitigation measures in place. 5/ https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1289249709081542656
5/ https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1289249709081542656
The conflict between re-opening universities & keeping bars, pubs, cafés & restaurants open is now acutely felt in areas with high levels of infection. 6/ https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1313162782699917314
Especially in the absence of a circuit-breaker, it will not be long before many other places in the UK are faced with the conflict & trade-off between open universities & open businesses in the community that Manchester now faces. 7/7
What's needed to mitigate the spread of infections. https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1316651227665575936
. https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1316651227665575936
"With infection rates among the 18-21 age group sometimes seven times higher than the rest of the local population, people have reacted angrily to being placed under lockdown partly because of outbreaks in universities." 1/ https://uk.news.yahoo.com/the-six-universities-that-have-reported-more-than-1000-coronavirus-cases-182039400.html
Not a random sample, but nevertheless indicative of the anger of residents in communities near the universities of Northumbria, Newcastle & Durham. 2/
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/university-students-should-stayed-home-19101576
2/https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/university-students-should-stayed-home-19101576
Mayor of Manchester pushes against Johnson's imposing Tier 3 restrictions w/o providing adequate financial support for those who will have their wages cut & contrary to the claim of the Deputy Medical Officer that this will be ineffective... 3/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/no-agreement-on-manchester-and-lancashire-lockdown-says-hancock
...while the VC of the University of Manchester reveals astonishing obliviousness to the consequences of re-opening halls at high capacity & w/o sufficient provision of testing in the midst of a pandemic. 4/ https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1315537780739432448
. 4/ https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1315537780739432448
...and the VC of Sheffield announces in an email to staffthat the Prime Minister is committed to keeping universities open, apparently however high the level of community infection. What (more) could possibly go wrong? 5/5
that the Prime Minister is committed to keeping universities open, apparently however high the level of community infection. What (more) could possibly go wrong? 5/5
Of relevanceto the Sheffield VC's email
( @sheffielducu) https://twitter.com/jim_dickinson/status/1317008267193835520
to the Sheffield VC's email( @sheffielducu) https://twitter.com/jim_dickinson/status/1317008267193835520
Latest ONS pilot survey release: "the number of infections has continued to increase rapidly". See how ages 17-24 spikes w/ re-opening of universities & then levels off somewhat -- & also how much higher this age group is, compared w others.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest
A tale of 3 nearby cities: Re-opening unis of Leeds & Sheffield led to spikes in Covid-19 infection in those cities. But going online from the beginning of term prevented a spike in Bradford. https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/university-bradford-few-coronavirus-cases-19109459
"SARS-CoV-2 sequencing reveals rapid transmission from [university &] college student clusters resulting in morbidity and deaths in vulnerable populations" 1/2
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.12.20210294v1.full.pdf
!["SARS-CoV-2 sequencing reveals rapid transmission from [university &] college student clusters resulting in morbidity and deaths in vulnerable populations" 1/2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.12.20210294v1.full.pdf](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ekgo0lmXgAAQOAB.jpg "\"SARS-CoV-2 sequencing reveals rapid transmission from [university &] college student clusters resulting in morbidity and deaths in vulnerable populations\" 1/2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.12.20210294v1.full.pdf")
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.12.20210294v1.full.pdf
