Our country is being held hostage by mad scientists and MPs afraid of blame.

And the most important vision they should be using, hindsight they all appear to be blind too.

I will try and break it down in this long thread.

#WhyAreTheyDoingThis
#pensionerprisoners
#Covid_19

1 - Covid-19 arrived far earlier than anyone knew. It was likely in Britain in November or December and by January and February it was spreading rapidly. This took our government and other countries by surprise. And the resulting overload on health services was massive.

2 - there was little choice by mid March for most leaders and action to prevent a catastrophic failure and collapse of the NHS was essential. Cases were flooding in stadd sickness in NHS was rising fast. We were on the brink.

3 - the virus was so new the medical knowledge just hadn't accumulated to make good decisions on treatments. Doctors were fighting for peoples lives based on at times best guess using all their previous knowledge of other viruses. But covid was different and its impact nuanced.

4 - Although lockdown was a hammer to hit a flea it seemed at the time the only logical way to wrestle control back, to give the health service and the government time to find a strategy to fight this. Treatments were still so new no one knew for sure what was best. It was a mess

5 - So we all suffered while doctors, sage and government learnt on the hoof, but as we gathered more and more information we began to understand the virus more, who it targeted, what treatments seemed to work, the fog of covid was lifting.

6 - Since March we have seen 43,000 lives lost. But we since March we have not moved from the panic days to what is now a very clear picture of the virus. Instead fear is still being used to cover up for the failures of the first half of the year. Fear is now the driver.

7 - But now we know much more, but we had a government desperate to stop the hemorrhaging of money and the suspension of the economy which to anyone with a brain can see will cost more lives over time. The country was facing a mental health breakdown.

8 - But we now know more, we have data from over a million days in hospitals, data from 43,000 deaths and the victims profiles, we have data on 450,000 survivors. We have insight on how big wave one was, the speed of spread and where. We have knowledge on treatments that work.

9 - we now know that the average age of victims is 82. We know which conditions make people vulnerable. We know the virus has a long incubation period and can stay on some surfaces for days. We know 10 times what we knew before lockdown. We know young people are resilient to it.

10 - What we also know is that by the time we see a covid spike any action we take is about mitigation. The spike is an indicator. We also know lockdowns are the worst form of treatment, the hammer and the flea. It is a steam roller to crack a nut. Lockdowns are madness.

11 - So what is the answer? Well we know many things, we know that by the time of national lockdown the cases were running at up to 120,000 new infections per day. Therefore it is highly likely we have seen since January 5 million people at least be infected. That is huge.

12 - We know that the virus mortality rate is not 3 or 4% its more like 0.13%. Statistically a person living in the UK has a 0.06% chance of dying of covid in their lifetime. Car accidents, robbings you are 6 times greater chance of being involved in. So why the fear, the panic?

13 - so now we know who it targets, who are resistant, how it spreads, who is at risk, the mortality of it, better treatments. The why are we still using the hammer?

Fear. Fear of being wrong, fear of being blamed, fear of well just about anything covid related.

14 - So what is happening. #sage are badly advising thw government, they are not united as they seem. Too many egos, and quite frankly to many personal scientific theories to be proved before they see the damage they are doing to you, me the economy and our mental well-being.

15 - The data makes it very clear that a slightly more risky but far more sensible policy is controlled spread with shielding of our vulnerable people is a far better and sane, yes sane way forward. Why is it risky, well peoples lives of course. But that is why we must change.

16 - Lives, livelihoods, businesses, debt nental health, cancer patients, heart and lung patients all are dying either actually or financially or mentally now. Children at risk, educations destroyed. Because of Fear!

17 - The impact of this is going to ripple for a decade or more, lockdowns will kill far more than they save and that is a fact. Why? Because unlike #sage i see the impact of financial hardship on ordinary people, the damage is like a car crash, its long term effect deep!

18 - I have modelled recessions and impact for over twenty years, this gives me a terrible foresight on the damage we are now doing. I see the faces of those that will soon be flooding jobcentres desperate, in real crisis. Lives will be lost. Abuse will rise, crimes go up.

19 - I also see the damage we are doing to the nations health, trust me, the data is clear we are stocking up a health crisis so large it will hit every single family in every home everywhere, no one will escape untouched.

And it is growing daily. It is insane self harm.

20 - 2 million cancer screenings lost. 62,000 urgent cancer referrals lost. A&E referrals down 30%. Operations cancelled for up to 2 years. 1.5 million jobs lost. That will rise to 3 million over next 3 months. Businesses failing left right and centre.

The tsunami is coming.

21 and last.

I know a different way may seem scary, so much fear peddled by media and MPs like "let it rip" an awful nasty and evil set of words.

But there is a better way and we all need to push for it.

Be safe all.

Statistics Guy

The data: