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Early/Mail votes in Michigan: DEM 40%, GOP 40%.
Everyone gets a ballot, so not much to look into here... but a slight
With 976k votes in, that is... unexpected.
I looked more in-depth at that data... quick thread with some interesting things I found:
Everyone gets a ballot, so not much to look into here... but a slight
With 976k votes in, that is... unexpected.
I looked more in-depth at that data... quick thread with some interesting things I found:
Quick summary:
R's overperforming in some counties I wouldn't expect (Kent: R+18%) + most bellweathers
D's aren't overperforming as much as I expected, but some areas impressive
D margin in 12 largest counties = R margin in remaining 71 counties
My eyes tell me tossup.
R's overperforming in some counties I wouldn't expect (Kent: R+18%) + most bellweathersD's aren't overperforming as much as I expected, but some areas impressiveD margin in 12 largest counties = R margin in remaining 71 countiesMy eyes tell me tossup.
Quick note:
All data obtained from TargetSmart
Voters in Michigan don't register by party. TargetSmart has a predictive model to predict these numbers, using factors like voter history.
I defined each county as D/R/bellweather based on historic voting trends.
All data obtained from TargetSmartVoters in Michigan don't register by party. TargetSmart has a predictive model to predict these numbers, using factors like voter history.I defined each county as D/R/bellweather based on historic voting trends.
Vote Margins in...
Counties that tend to vote GOP: R +34.2%
Counties that tend to vote DEM: D +29.1%
**BELLWEATHERS**: R +17.4%
In Michigan's historic bellweather counties, the GOP currently has a vote lead of just over 40,000 right now. (17.4%)
That is... unexpected.
Counties that tend to vote GOP: R +34.2%Counties that tend to vote DEM: D +29.1%**BELLWEATHERS**: R +17.4%In Michigan's historic bellweather counties, the GOP currently has a vote lead of just over 40,000 right now. (17.4%)
That is... unexpected.
The overall margin is only a tie right now bc, as expected, more Dems are voting by mail:
9.2% of the population of R areas has voted already in Michigan
For D areas, that number jumps up to 10.3%- about 200,000 more votes than R areas
In bellweathers, it's back at 9.58%
9.2% of the population of R areas has voted already in MichiganFor D areas, that number jumps up to 10.3%- about 200,000 more votes than R areasIn bellweathers, it's back at 9.58%
70 of the 71 least populated counties (out of 83, many rurals)- all but 1 (Marquette) is either an R area or a bellweather.
In these counties, GOP is running up the score:
GOP: 52.4%
DEM: 21.8%
Turnout: 8.85% of population
They lead these counties by around 90,000 votes
In these counties, GOP is running up the score:
GOP: 52.4%DEM: 21.8%Turnout: 8.85% of population
They lead these counties by around 90,000 votes
The remaining 12 counties (most populous): 7 DEM, 4 GOP, 1 bellweather (Macomb).
In these counties, it's a different story:
DEM: 47.8%
GOP: 34.6%
Turnout: 10.23% of population
Different margins, but bc higher turnout, the Dems lead these counties by around... 90,000 votes
In these counties, it's a different story:
DEM: 47.8%GOP: 34.6%Turnout: 10.23% of population
Different margins, but bc higher turnout, the Dems lead these counties by around... 90,000 votes
Larger counties (pop. of at least 150,000) driving the GOP momentum, sorted by population:
Macomb: R +3.9%
Kent: R +18.0%
Ottawa: R +59.4%
Livingston: R +47.4%
Muskegon: R +1.9%
St. Clair: R +42.3%
Jackson: R +32.7%
Berrien: R +19.8%
Monroe: R +37.1%
Macomb: R +3.9%Kent: R +18.0%Ottawa: R +59.4% Livingston: R +47.4%Muskegon: R +1.9%St. Clair: R +42.3%Jackson: R +32.7%Berrien: R +19.8%Monroe: R +37.1%
Larger counties (pop. of at least 150,000) driving the DEM momentum, sorted by population:
Wayne: D +44.6%
Oakland: D +6.7%
Genesee: D +22.3%
Washtenaw: D +55.8%
Ingham: D +44.5%
Kalamazoo: D +15.4%
Saginaw: D +1.2%
Wayne: D +44.6%Oakland: D +6.7%Genesee: D +22.3%Washtenaw: D +55.8%Ingham: D +44.5%Kalamazoo: D +15.4%Saginaw: D +1.2%
2 interesting larger counties (pop. > 150,000):
Muskegon: D since 1988 & almost went R in 2016... the GOP currently leads by 1.9%.
Saginaw: D from 1984-2012, DID barely go R in 2016... DEM currently leads by 1.2%
Muskegon: D since 1988 & almost went R in 2016... the GOP currently leads by 1.9%. Saginaw: D from 1984-2012, DID barely go R in 2016... DEM currently leads by 1.2%
To summarize:
Dems are supposed to dominate early/mail votes. They aren't doing so in R/bellweather counties (trail by 200k votes)
In D counties alone, they have a slightly better turnout & 200k vote lead... & it STILL isn't enough to give them the overall lead in Michigan
Dems are supposed to dominate early/mail votes. They aren't doing so in R/bellweather counties (trail by 200k votes)In D counties alone, they have a slightly better turnout & 200k vote lead... & it STILL isn't enough to give them the overall lead in Michigan
As far as projecting the early vote (or the final vote) in Michigan-- give me a bit.
Currently writing a model for that.
Wayne County (very D) is currently slightly behind where I'd expect it to be, but so is R-leaning Macomb & Kent.
So it's not simple, but I'll do what I can!
Currently writing a model for that.
Wayne County (very D) is currently slightly behind where I'd expect it to be, but so is R-leaning Macomb & Kent.
So it's not simple, but I'll do what I can!
(Note: literally none of this is a projection from me.
This is data that's already out there.
I just compiled & presented it in a way that was easier for me to read & understand, so that I can write a projection for later on.)
This is data that's already out there.
I just compiled & presented it in a way that was easier for me to read & understand, so that I can write a projection for later on.)
