Early/Mail votes in Michigan: DEM 40%, GOP 40%.

Everyone gets a ballot, so not much to look into here... but a slight

With 976k votes in, that is... unexpected.

I looked more in-depth at that data... quick thread with some interesting things I found:

Quick summary:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">R& #39;s overperforming in some counties I wouldn& #39;t expect (Kent: R+18%) + most bellweathers

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">D& #39;s aren& #39;t overperforming as much as I expected, but some areas impressive

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">D margin in 12 largest counties = R margin in remaining 71 counties

My eyes tell me tossup.

Quick note:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">All data obtained from TargetSmart

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Voters in Michigan don& #39;t register by party. TargetSmart has a predictive model to predict these numbers, using factors like voter history.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">I defined each county as D/R/bellweather based on historic voting trends.

Vote Margins in...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Counties that tend to vote GOP: R +34.2%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">Counties that tend to vote DEM: D +29.1%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">**BELLWEATHERS**: R +17.4%

In Michigan& #39;s historic bellweather counties, the GOP currently has a vote lead of just over 40,000 right now. (17.4%)

That is... unexpected.

The overall margin is only a tie right now bc, as expected, more Dems are voting by mail:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">9.2% of the population of R areas has voted already in Michigan

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">For D areas, that number jumps up to 10.3%- about 200,000 more votes than R areas

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">In bellweathers, it& #39;s back at 9.58%

70 of the 71 least populated counties (out of 83, many rurals)- all but 1 (Marquette) is either an R area or a bellweather.

In these counties, GOP is running up the score:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">GOP: 52.4%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">DEM: 21.8%

Turnout: 8.85% of population

They lead these counties by around 90,000 votes

The remaining 12 counties (most populous): 7 DEM, 4 GOP, 1 bellweather (Macomb).

In these counties, it& #39;s a different story:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">DEM: 47.8%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">GOP: 34.6%

Turnout: 10.23% of population

Different margins, but bc higher turnout, the Dems lead these counties by around... 90,000 votes

Larger counties (pop. of at least 150,000) driving the GOP momentum, sorted by population:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Macomb: R +3.9%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Kent: R +18.0%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Ottawa: R +59.4%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Livingston: R +47.4%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Muskegon: R +1.9%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">St. Clair: R +42.3%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Jackson: R +32.7%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Berrien: R +19.8%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Monroe: R +37.1%

Larger counties (pop. of at least 150,000) driving the DEM momentum, sorted by population:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">Wayne: D +44.6%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">Oakland: D +6.7%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">Genesee: D +22.3%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">Washtenaw: D +55.8%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">Ingham: D +44.5%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">Kalamazoo: D +15.4%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">Saginaw: D +1.2%

2 interesting larger counties (pop. > 150,000):

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Muskegon: D since 1988 & almost went R in 2016... the GOP currently leads by 1.9%.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute">Saginaw: D from 1984-2012, DID barely go R in 2016... DEM currently leads by 1.2%

To summarize:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Dems are supposed to dominate early/mail votes. They aren& #39;t doing so in R/bellweather counties (trail by 200k votes)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">In D counties alone, they have a slightly better turnout & 200k vote lead... & it STILL isn& #39;t enough to give them the overall lead in Michigan

As far as projecting the early vote (or the final vote) in Michigan-- give me a bit.

Currently writing a model for that.

Wayne County (very D) is currently slightly behind where I& #39;d expect it to be, but so is R-leaning Macomb & Kent.

So it& #39;s not simple, but I& #39;ll do what I can!

(Note: literally none of this is a projection from me.

This is data that& #39;s already out there.

I just compiled & presented it in a way that was easier for me to read & understand, so that I can write a projection for later on.)