1) Trump just made a big concession that has largely escaped notice. But it's a very important one.

It strongly suggests that Trump no longer expects William Barr to bail him out before Election Day. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/13/trump-admits-it-intervention-he-desperately-needs-isnt-going-come/

2) At his Florida rally, Trump railed about the "Obamagate" scandal. The usual lies.

But Trump also vowed to deal with all those criminals (Hillary, Obama, Biden) "after the election."

Why? Because Barr has let it be known no big surprises are coming. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/13/trump-admits-it-intervention-he-desperately-needs-isnt-going-come/

3) This is funny, because Trump has promised his voters big revelations in the fake "Obamagate" scandal for months.

But the big story has been that his many efforts to corrupt the election are blowing up in his face.

The same is now happening with Barr:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/13/trump-admits-it-intervention-he-desperately-needs-isnt-going-come/

4) So Trump appears increasingly resigned to the likelihood that he won't get the last-minute intervention that he's been banking on.

In this and so many other ways, 2020 is *not* 2016 all over again.

@ForecasterEnten did a great CNN segment on this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/13/trump-admits-it-intervention-he-desperately-needs-isnt-going-come/

5) This time Trump is the incumbent with a record to defend. He's been judged a disastrous failure on the election's central issue.

And his trade wars have been so disastrous that the White House is shoveling billions in bailout money to farmers:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/13/trump-admits-it-intervention-he-desperately-needs-isnt-going-come/

6) Trump is the incumbent. Biden is polling at 50 percent. There are far fewer swing/undecides.

All that means an 11th hour deus ex machina would be unlikely to result in a shift like the one from Her Emails in 2016.

Full case here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/13/trump-admits-it-intervention-he-desperately-needs-isnt-going-come/