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I'm fascinated by the way Trump keeps citing the stock market as proof of how well he's doing. Aside from the fact that it's a terrible indicator of the economy at large, I do not think this market means what he thinks it means 1/
The recent market rise has taken place mainly since the first presidential debate 2/
You know what else has happened since that debate? Biden's lead seems to have expanded by about 3 points, possibly putting him in landslide territory 3/
The 538 model has marked Trump's chances down to 13 percent, from 32 percent at the end of August. (The Economist model has him down to 9%) 4/
By the way, 538 gave Trump a 29% chance in 2016 — it did NOT predict a certain Clinton win. And state polls are probably better now than then, bc they weight for education 5/
Anyway, while Trump wants to claim the rising market as a form of endorsement, what's really happening is that the market is up despite a clear decline in his prospects. Mr. Market is basically saying that if anything he favors Biden 6/
Now, markets are lousy indicators. Let's not forget this, from Trump's chief economist; the Great Recession started 5 months later 7/
But for what it's worth, the market is not voting for Trump 8/
