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One very strong message came out of Saad al-Hariri's interview with MTV last week, namely that he was ready to make a deal with Hezbollah and Amal, and that his former allies could come along if they wanted to, but had no latitude to interrupt the process.
In other words if the Sunnis and Shia are in agreement, the minorities must go along. Even the FPM in this phase are mere adjuncts to the Shia duo, while the Lebanese Forces and Walid Jumblatt are on their own. That's why Walid effectively gave up on Geagea last night.
Suleiman Franjieh got the message and, today, announced that he would vote for Hariri in parliamentary consultations. He thus effectively becomes Hariri's favorite as president to succeed Aoun, at Gebran Bassil's expense: https://bit.ly/3iTslo4
What allowed Hariri to take a tough line on his erstwhile allies is that he apparently received a Saudi green light to be PM, and his return has a measure of international, particularly French and U.S., approval.
Does this mean real reform is coming? God knows, and cynicism is often the best option. That said, if there is genuine Sunni-Shia agreement on a government to implement the French initiative and stop the bleeding, then the ability to stop this domestically will be limited.
Moreover, the fact that the U.S. is now mediating in talks between Lebanon and Israel means that Washington has little incentive to derail the French plan, let alone a government effectively established by Hariri and Hezbollah. If Biden wins, this trend will be consolidated.
To add insult to injury to Bassil (on October 13 no less), I heard that his appointee to the negotiating team with Israel was removed by a leading figure in the Shia duo. That means he is losing ground at all levels and his presidential ambitions are sinking fast.
Walid Jumblatt's mea culpa yesterday on the May 7, 2008 events suggests he is preparing a pivot, which his criticism of Samir Geagea only underscored. When Walid attacks the Maronites publicly, it means he's preparing a big turn (Remember this: https://bit.ly/3duQhNG ).
His pivot is because he can see that a Hariri-Hezbollah deal is on us and he can't afford to be left out. That also means he may be preparing for an eventual shift on Syria, which his support of a Franjieh presidency, against Bassil and Geagea, would only make more likely.
So we appear to be on the cusp of a new political phase in Lebanon that may or may not lead to better outcomes; but that does reflect how the country is trying to find a new equilibrium in a contentious region, whatever the preferences of the population at large.
