Thread by @DrSimEvans, The @IEA #WEO20 is out!My deep-dive analysis: solar 20-50% cheaper than IEA [...]

The @IEA #WEO20 is out!

My deep-dive analysis:

solar 20-50% cheaper than IEA said last yr

coal in "structural decline"

no peak yet for oil

gas to rise 30%

CO2 plateau…unless more climate action

+ 1st-ever modelling on 1.5C

THREAD https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA

The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countries.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

Backdrop is #COVID19 pandemic and huge uncertainty, so #WEO20 changes usual roster of scenarios:

CPS out (for now)
STEPS gets "delayed recovery" (DRS) side case
SDS more prominent than before
NZE2050 = 1.5C pathway

The choice for the world:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

One intriguing little nugget I found is that the SDS seems to be getting more prominent in recent WEOs.

Chart by @joejgoodman confirms a suspicion I'd been forming. (Any tips on PDF text tools tho? This was a bodge!)

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

#WEO20 includes a major new bit of work by @WannerBrent + colleagues @IEA on financing costs for solar + other renewables.

Result? Outlook says best solar now generates some of "lowest cost electricity in history" & solar generally cheaper than coal/gas:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

Combined with policy developments over the last year eg India's higher targets, this means renewables grow much more quickly than expected before:

43% higher by 2040 than in STEPS 2018

16% higher

See also how coal never recovers from #COVID19

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

Combined with policy developments over the last year eg India's higher targets, this means renewables grow much more quickly than expected before: 43% higher by 2040 than in STEPS 2018 16% higherSee also how coal never recovers from #COVID19 https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

*pausing for late-waking toddler*

Back soon and there's more I've yet to finish adding to my analysis article so watch this space…

I'm back! We've just updated my piece with more:

Many of you will have been waiting for the "IEA solar" chart – and the news this year is STEPS now has rising growth (esp if you account for retirements)

See earlier tweets re solar costs…

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

The WEO has also historically cut the outlook for coal in successive outlooks, due to coal phaseout policies etc.

This year sees coal in "structural decline" after #COVID19

Coal is past its peak – yet far from a 1.5 or 2C path

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

But the rapid rise of renewables & coal's decline are not enough to force CO2 into retreat, with oil & gas continuing to rise without stronger climate policies

Chart shows how *all* fossil fuels would have to decline over next 20yrs to stay below 2C

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

This yr for 1st time, IEA has also modelled a 1.5C pathway, unfortunately without publishing the detailed numbers that come with STEPS/SDS

Many challenges, but one "essential" part of this "NZE2050 case" is behaviour change, mainly less driving & flying:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

This builds on some new analysis, also a 1st for the WEO, looking at what impact various behaviour changes would make to CO2 emissions.

It sees savings reach 2bn tonnes of CO2 by 2030 – a significant contribution – with transport at forefront

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

(Many thanks to @Josh_Gabbatiss for writing up this section of the WEO, it just wasn't possible to crunch the numbers and at least *skim* through nearly 500pp on my own… plea for a longer embargo lead @merveerdill

)

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea

Anyway there's loads more I could have focused on and plenty I have missed in the #WEO20 report, do check out tweets from @IEABirol and @IEA for more! https://twitter.com/IEABirol/status/1315865211107237889

https://twitter.com/IEABirol/status/1315865211107237889

Oh, while we're here I might as well share some other charts that I made, which didn't make the cut…

Solar costs 2019 v 2020 set against coal/gas. This one's interesting!

Chart of analysis in the article text, showing rising reference to "1.5C" and "net zero" in successive WEOs

The STEPS is still the main scenario in the WEO, contra wishes of #FixTheWEO @mckinnon_hannah et al – but the SDS is catching up

(mentions per 100 pages)

Two views of how fossil fuel use (and CO2 emissions) must decline by 2030 to meet global climate goals, with particularly steep declines for 1.5C.

See my previous analysis on this:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-coal-use-must-plummet-this-decade-to-keep-global-warming-below-1-5c

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