The @IEA #WEO20 is out!
My deep-dive analysis:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="š" title="Sonne mit Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Sonne mit Gesicht"> solar 20-50% cheaper than IEA said last yr
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="š" title="Fabrik" aria-label="Emoji: Fabrik"> coal in "structural decline"
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="ā½ļø" title="Benzinpumpe" aria-label="Emoji: Benzinpumpe"> no peak yet for oil
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="š„" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer"> gas to rise 30%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="āļø" title="Wolke" aria-label="Emoji: Wolke"> CO2 plateauā¦unless more climate action
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="šÆ" title="Volltreffer" aria-label="Emoji: Volltreffer"> + 1st-ever modelling on 1.5C
THREAD https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
My deep-dive analysis:
THREAD https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
Backdrop is #COVID19 pandemic and huge uncertainty, so #WEO20 changes usual roster of scenarios:
CPS out (for now)
STEPS gets "delayed recovery" (DRS) side case
SDSĀ more prominent than before
NZE2050Ā = 1.5C pathway
The choice for the world:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
CPS out (for now)
STEPS gets "delayed recovery" (DRS) side case
SDSĀ more prominent than before
NZE2050Ā = 1.5C pathway
The choice for the world:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
One intriguing little nugget I found is that the SDS seems to be getting more prominent in recent WEOs.
Chart by @joejgoodman confirms a suspicion I& #39;d been forming. (Any tips on PDF text tools tho? This was a bodge!)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
Chart by @joejgoodman confirms a suspicion I& #39;d been forming. (Any tips on PDF text tools tho? This was a bodge!)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
#WEO20 includes a major new bit of work by @WannerBrent + colleagues @IEA on financing costs for solar + other renewables.
Result? Outlook says best solar now generates some of "lowest cost electricity in history" & solar generally cheaper than coal/gas:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
Result? Outlook says best solar now generates some of "lowest cost electricity in history" & solar generally cheaper than coal/gas:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
Combined with policy developments over the last year eg India& #39;s higher targets, this means renewables grow much more quickly than expected before:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="š" title="Sonne mit Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Sonne mit Gesicht"> 43% higher by 2040 than in STEPS 2018
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="š¬ļø" title="Wind blasendes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Wind blasendes Gesicht"> 16% higher
See also how coal never recovers from #COVID19
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
See also how coal never recovers from #COVID19
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
*pausing for late-waking toddler*
Back soon and there& #39;s more I& #39;ve yet to finish adding to my analysis article so watch this spaceā¦
Back soon and there& #39;s more I& #39;ve yet to finish adding to my analysis article so watch this spaceā¦
I& #39;m back! We& #39;ve just updated my piece with more:
Many of you will have been waiting for the "IEA solar" chartĀ ā and the news this year is STEPS now has rising growth (esp if you account for retirements)
See earlier tweets re solar costsā¦
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
Many of you will have been waiting for the "IEA solar" chartĀ ā and the news this year is STEPS now has rising growth (esp if you account for retirements)
See earlier tweets re solar costsā¦
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
The WEO has also historically cut the outlook for coal in successive outlooks, due to coal phaseout policies etc.
This year sees coal in "structural decline" after #COVID19
Coal is past its peakĀ ā yet far from a 1.5 or 2C path
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
This year sees coal in "structural decline" after #COVID19
Coal is past its peakĀ ā yet far from a 1.5 or 2C path
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
But the rapid rise of renewables & coal& #39;s decline are not enough to force CO2 into retreat, with oil & gas continuing to rise without stronger climate policies
Chart shows how *all* fossil fuels would have to decline over next 20yrs to stay below 2C
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
Chart shows how *all* fossil fuels would have to decline over next 20yrs to stay below 2C
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
This yr for 1st time, IEA has also modelled a 1.5C pathway, unfortunately without publishing the detailed numbers that come with STEPS/SDS
Many challenges, but one "essential" part of this "NZE2050 case" is behaviour change, mainly less driving & flying:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
Many challenges, but one "essential" part of this "NZE2050 case" is behaviour change, mainly less driving & flying:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
This builds on some new analysis, also a 1st for the WEO, looking at what impact various behaviour changes would make to CO2 emissions.
It sees savings reach 2bn tonnes of CO2 by 2030Ā ā a significant contributionĀ ā with transport at forefront
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
It sees savings reach 2bn tonnes of CO2 by 2030Ā ā a significant contributionĀ ā with transport at forefront
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
(Many thanks to @Josh_Gabbatiss for writing up this section of the WEO, it just wasn& #39;t possible to crunch the numbers and at least *skim* through nearly 500pp on my own⦠plea for a longer embargo lead @merveerdill
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="š" title="LƤchelndes Gesicht mit geƶffnetem Mund" aria-label="Emoji: LƤchelndes Gesicht mit geƶffnetem Mund">)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea">https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-...
Anyway there& #39;s loads more I could have focused on and plenty I have missed in the #WEO20 report, do check out tweets from @IEABirol and @IEA for more! https://twitter.com/IEABirol/status/1315865211107237889">https://twitter.com/IEABirol/...
Oh, while we& #39;re here I might as well share some other charts that I made, which didn& #39;t make the cutā¦
Solar costs 2019 v 2020 set against coal/gas. This one& #39;s interesting!
Solar costs 2019 v 2020 set against coal/gas. This one& #39;s interesting!
Chart of analysis in the article text, showing rising reference to "1.5C" and "net zero" in successive WEOs
The STEPS is still the main scenario in the WEO, contra wishes of #FixTheWEO @mckinnon_hannah et alĀ āĀ but the SDS is catching up
(mentions per 100 pages)
(mentions per 100 pages)
Two views of how fossil fuel use (and CO2 emissions) must decline by 2030 to meet global climate goals, with particularly steep declines for 1.5C.
See my previous analysis on this:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-coal-use-must-plummet-this-decade-to-keep-global-warming-below-1-5c">https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-...
See my previous analysis on this:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-coal-use-must-plummet-this-decade-to-keep-global-warming-below-1-5c">https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-...