[thread] I've done a deep dive into polling data comparing 2016 Trump, Clinton predicted margin of victory in key states and the final result.

Then, I looked at 2020 Trump, Biden predicted margin of victory. Finally, I examined Clinton final margin with Biden's predicted margin
2. I'm only including states where Biden has a chance to flip it.

* ARIZONA 2016 PREDICTION
Trump 46%, Clinton 43%
Final Trump 48.1%, Clinton 44.6
CLINTON - 3.5%

* ARIZONA 2020 PREDICTION
Trump 44.2%, Biden 48%
BIDEN + 3.8
3. FLORIDA 2016 PREDICTION
Trump 46%, Clinton 45.6
Final Trump 48.6%, Clinton 47.4%
CLINTON - 1.2

* FLORIDA 2020 PREDICTION
Trump 44.4%, Biden 46.8%
BIDEN + 2.4
4. MICHIGAN 2016 PREDICTION
Trump 39.8%, Clinton 45%
Final Trump 47.3%, Clinton 47%
CLINTON - .3

* MICHIGAN 2020 PREDICTION
Trump 44%, Biden 49.8%
BIDEN + 5.8
5. NORTH CAROLINA 2016 PREDICTION
Trump 45.6%, Clinton 45.4%
Final Trump 49.8%, Clinton 46.2%
CLINTON - 3.6%

NORTH CAROLINA 2020 PREDICTION
Trump 45%, Biden 46.2%
BIDEN + 1.2%
6. PENNSYLVANIA 2016 PREDICTION
Trump 42.9%, Clinton 46.6%
Final Trump 48.2%, Clinton 47.5%
CLINTON - 0.7%

PENNSYLVANIA 2020 PREDICTION
Trump 43.4%, Biden 50%
BIDEN + 6.6%
7. WISCONSIN 2016 PREDICTION
Trump 40.2%, Clinton 46.8%
Final Trump 47.2%, Clinton 46.5%
CLINTON - 0.7%

WISCONSIN 2020 PREDICTION
Trump 42.6%, Biden 49.4%
BIDEN + 6.8%
8. NATIONAL POLL AVERAGE FOR POPULAR VOTE
2016 PREDICTION

Trump 42.5%
Clinton 45.6%
Clinton + 3.1% to 3.6%

NATIONAL RESULTS 2016
Trump 45.9%
Clinton 48%
Clinton + 2.1%
9. NATIONAL POLL AVERAGE FOR POPULAR VOTE
2020 PREDICTION

Trump 40%
Biden 52%
Biden + 12%
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