Read on Twitter
this is to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but my sloppy estimate is that as of today the pfizer trial has accumulated 657,000 person-days of efficacy data. at the recent rate of confirmed cases nationwide, that would imply around 60-80 "events" to date
the event rate could be lower b/c trial participants are more cautious etc., or higher b/c the trial is trying to enroll in high-transmission areas. if it all cancels out, it seems like we're on course for the final-final event count of 164 by nov 6
call me crazy but i feel like this pfizer statement hints that they've already blow through an interim analysis or two: "In the spirit of candor, we will share any ***conclusive*** readout (positive or negative) with the public as soon as practical"
https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla
https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla
many are saying this! https://twitter.com/JacobPlieth/status/1319657863137079297?s=20
but...doesn’t this imply an infection rate much lower than than the national average? This may drag on 
messing around with the ol' spreadsheet, through today, at national-avg case rates, the PFE trial should have seen:
* 85 cases if the vaccine were 100% effective
* 127 cases if 50% effective
* 170 cases if 0% effective
* 85 cases if the vaccine were 100% effective
* 127 cases if 50% effective
* 170 cases if 0% effective
but apparently they're at <32? if so, then the accrual of "events" is running something like 3-4x slower than the national average
just because i was curious...let's say the infection rate in the placebo group is just permanently 7x lower than the national average (cautious people etc.). and let's say the vaccine is exactly as effective as it needs to be to hit the primary endpoint (52.3%). that would imply>
that 18 events had occurred through today, as opposed to the 32 needed for the first interim analysis. here's the problem, though: by construction, in this scenario, there will never be a "conclusive" interim analysis. they'd have to wait for trial completion. which would be...
around tax day 2021
he’s done the modeling too https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1321265857624895490
Pfizer to me:
