"I am not confident - & nor is anybody confident - that the Tier 3 proposals for the highest rates, if we did the absolute base case & nothing more, would be enough to get on top of it.” Whitty

Did the govt just announce a #COVID19 strategy that they are not confident will work?
Whitty goes on: “That’s why there is a lot of flexibility in the tier 3 level for local authorities, guided by the directors of public health, to actually go up that range so they can do significantly more than the base, b/c the base won’t be sufficient https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/local-lockdowns-covid-19-chris-whitty_uk_5f846c97c5b62f97bac5fd4d
After months of excluding
local & regional public health experts from outbreak management (centralising data & contracting testing to companies like Serco etc), No.10 now going to get local govts involved in deciding & enforcing restrictions
@doctorshaib👇
It is likely that - due to confusion around messaging & a draining of public trust in the govt & their scientists - ‘enforcement will be needed’

PM & Sunak both mentioned it

Marshals, fines, #COVIDIOT hotlines &
perhaps soldiers on our streets by Xmas. https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1315727853934333956?s=21 https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1315727853934333956
"Modelling suggests that 14 days of significant reduction in transmission in Oct could put the epidemic back 28 days & could significantly reduce the prevalence of infection in Dec”

3 weeks ago SAGE called on govt to go much further than he has done today https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-sage-officially-asked-urgent-22834510
SAGE officially asked for an urgent 2-week 'circuit break' lockdown 3 weeks ago

Boris Johnson's scientific advisors said a two-week shutdown "should be considered for immediate introduction" and would reduce infections and deaths in December - but the Prime Minister refused to...

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-sage-officially-asked-urgent-22834510
The SAGE minutes from 21 September reveal that they recommended a package of immediate measures including:

“Closure of all bars, restaurants, cafes, indoor gyms & personal services
(e.g. hairdressers)

All university & college teaching to be online unless absolutely essential”
SAGE also warned there could be up to 3,000 hospital admissions per day unless action is taken.

The minutes say that the tightening of “infection control measures in all hospitals & care homes should be seen as a priority if infections continue to grow.”
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925854/S0769_Summary_of_effectiveness_and_harms_of_NPIs.pdf
SAGE also warned there could be up to 3,000 hospital admissions per day unless action is taken.The minutes say that the tightening of “infection control measures in all hospitals & care homes should be seen as a priority if infections continue to grow.” https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925854/S0769_Summary_of_effectiveness_and_harms_of_NPIs.pdf
SAGE also warned there could be up to 3,000 hospital admissions per day unless action is taken.The minutes say that the tightening of “infection control measures in all hospitals & care homes should be seen as a priority if infections continue to grow.” https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925854/S0769_Summary_of_effectiveness_and_harms_of_NPIs.pdf
SAGE also warned there could be up to 3,000 hospital admissions per day unless action is taken.The minutes say that the tightening of “infection control measures in all hospitals & care homes should be seen as a priority if infections continue to grow.” https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925854/S0769_Summary_of_effectiveness_and_harms_of_NPIs.pdf
SAGE also warned there could be up to 3,000 hospital admissions per day unless action is taken.The minutes say that the tightening of “infection control measures in all hospitals & care homes should be seen as a priority if infections continue to grow.” https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925854/S0769_Summary_of_effectiveness_and_harms_of_NPIs.pdf
Back in June, SAGE minutes revealed that the govt KNEW on 25 February - a full month before lockdown - that without proper measures, #COVID19 would result in tens of thousands of lives & overwhelm the NHS ICU capacity.

And yet they did nothing.
https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1271526217548693511?s=21 https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1271526217548693511
Prof @JeremyFarrar says SAGE took the decision the UK should lockdown on 13 March & they “advised govt to impose a lockdown on 16 March”

Why the delay?

13/3 was a Friday

14/3 was @carriesymonds’ baby shower

16/3 was a Monday

Lockdown happened on 24/3
https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1283793012355670018?s=21 https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1283793012355670018
The delay to lockdown is just one of many govt #COVID19 scandals over the past 7 months. There was also:

The #CareHomeScandal
The #TestingScandal
The #AppScandal
The #LockdownFatigueScandal etc.

All these👆are part of the wider #HerdImmunityScandal. https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1252354324136521736?s=21
As WHO head, @DrTedros, made clear today, #HerdImmunity is an “outcome” never a “strategy”

If it is being used as the strategy - both in the UK & the US - what is the bigger plan?

This thread👇offers some clues #COVID #coronavirus #palantir #PalantirPlan
https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1310703032846475265?s=21 https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1310703032846475265
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