Theory: the reason right wing commentators are so sure “shy/reluctant Trump voters” exist is because this group disproportionately exists among Republican/conservative political operatives/lobbyists/media figures. 1/?

There is almost no evidence for “shy Trump voters.” When you look at 2016 results, Trump overperformed in areas where social desirability bias would not be a factor (I.e. in white rural/exurban areas). If social desirability bias was in play you’d expect to see him overperform 2/

in urban and suburban settings, which he emphatically did not. Can you find individual “liberal New York tech developers with lesbian moms” or whatever who claim they’re secretly supporting Trump? Sure. You can find individual examples of almost anything... 3/?

Obama-Romney-Clinton-Trump voters! Romney-Trump-Biden voters! Obama-Trump-Biden voters! Obama-Stein-Trump voters! And yeah, you can find shy Biden voters in rural white areas. But these anecdotes are mostly useless for saying anything about the big picture. They don’t show up 4/?

at anywhere near the scale necessary to swing elections, and shy Trump voters in particular were not a big factor in 2016 polling. So why won’t people stop talking about them? 1. Nervous liberals 2. Conservatives desperate for good news in polling 3. This type of voter is .. 5/?

over represented among professional DC-orbit Republicans who badly want to vote Republican, are put off by Trump personally, but really want to own the Libs/get to yes on their party’s nominee/strike back at the unfair media/culture. But there’s only a couple hundred of them.

They’re not representative at all. But they all talk to each other constantly and so they appear more numerous to each other than they are.