Thread from my mentor and friend @LHSummers on the cost of the COVID virus to the US. Even under optimistic assumptions about containing spread, cost = $16 Trillion. https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1315679595841101826
Half of this is lost economic output. Other half is cost of health impairment.
This is 4x the cost of the Great Recession, 2x the cost of all the wars since 9/11, and equal to 50 years of the cost of global warming. This is IMMENSE.
A corollary: efforts to reduce the spread of the virus, from testing to tracing have payoffs equal to many multiples of their cost. Our idea: any new bill must devote at least 5% of dollars to testing and tracing.
You can follow @Cutler_econ.
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