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Cases and hospitalizations are rising across the US
And I’m getting asked repeatedly whether we're heading toward lockdowns
Short answer – no – not if we are smart
Long answer? Its complicated
So let’s talk about lockdowns – and how we get through next few months
Thread
And I’m getting asked repeatedly whether we're heading toward lockdowns
Short answer – no – not if we are smart
Long answer? Its complicated
So let’s talk about lockdowns – and how we get through next few months
Thread
Lockdowns – shelter in place orders – are extreme
And awful. Super costly and usually not necessary
We locked down in March/April because virus spread across US in Jan/Feb
And we were blind. We had no testing. We had little choice
Situation now different. We know more
2/n
And awful. Super costly and usually not necessary
We locked down in March/April because virus spread across US in Jan/Feb
And we were blind. We had no testing. We had little choice
Situation now different. We know more
2/n
First, let’s talk about why everyone is concerned:
Cases rising in most states
Hospitalizations rising in most states
Test + going up too
As weather gets colder, expect things to get worse in much of nation
Why?
People will spend more time indoors. But not just that
3/n
Cases rising in most states
Hospitalizations rising in most states
Test + going up too
As weather gets colder, expect things to get worse in much of nation
Why?
People will spend more time indoors. But not just that
3/n
Colder, drier air spreads SARS-CoV2 more efficiently
And here's the problem:
States across political spectrum too relaxed
Many loosening restrictions on bars, indoor dining
And, lot of spread happening in homes via gatherings
Home unfortunately, not safe from virus spread
And here's the problem:
States across political spectrum too relaxed
Many loosening restrictions on bars, indoor dining
And, lot of spread happening in homes via gatherings
Home unfortunately, not safe from virus spread
Oh – you know where we are NOT seeing a lot of spread?
In K-12 schools
Schools aren't immune but we are likely overestimating their danger.
We really do need to open more schools
BTW private schools across nation largely open, public not. But I digress
5/9
In K-12 schools
Schools aren't immune but we are likely overestimating their danger.
We really do need to open more schools
BTW private schools across nation largely open, public not. But I digress
5/9
Key failure of our pandemic response is we always act while looking in rear view mirror
We consistently act too late
We wait until cases rise, % positivity rises, before we pull back
And we are doing that now
And here’s another problem – the time period we are in
6/9
We consistently act too late
We wait until cases rise, % positivity rises, before we pull back
And we are doing that now
And here’s another problem – the time period we are in
6/9
All of our political leaders are focused on the election
Makes sense
But that means we are not hearing much clear communication about the virus
You know the old saying:
Never have a pandemic during a Presidential election year
7/9
Makes sense
But that means we are not hearing much clear communication about the virus
You know the old saying:
Never have a pandemic during a Presidential election year
7/9
So here's our job:
Avoid lockdowns, get through next few months without another 100,000 Americans dying
How?
It’s the old boring stuff, with some twists
So let's make a list:
1. Be diligent about masks. Indoors whenever not home. Outdoors when close to people, speaking
8/10
Avoid lockdowns, get through next few months without another 100,000 Americans dying
How?
It’s the old boring stuff, with some twists
So let's make a list:
1. Be diligent about masks. Indoors whenever not home. Outdoors when close to people, speaking
8/10
2. Avoid indoor bars/restaurants. Outdoors or takeout
3. Stay in as small a bubble as you can tolerate
4. Avoid house parties / gatherings
Want to see friend? Outside
Too cold?
Indoors: wear mask, stay apart, open windows even little (Not year to be energy efficient)
9/10
3. Stay in as small a bubble as you can tolerate
4. Avoid house parties / gatherings
Want to see friend? Outside
Too cold?
Indoors: wear mask, stay apart, open windows even little (Not year to be energy efficient)
9/10
4. Push for more testing
We hear tests coming. Where are the tests??
And if you get called by contact tracer, please respond
5. Push local leaders – mayors, governors – to prioritize schools, not bars/restaurants. Lets provide B/Rs $ so they can survive
10/11
We hear tests coming. Where are the tests??
And if you get called by contact tracer, please respond
5. Push local leaders – mayors, governors – to prioritize schools, not bars/restaurants. Lets provide B/Rs $ so they can survive
10/11
There is a light at end of tunnel, I swear
We have zero national leadership so WE need to step up
Election coming – please vote
But don't lose sight of the virus
Lockdowns are awful, fully preventable
But they require that we be smart. And demand more from our leaders
Fin
We have zero national leadership so WE need to step up
Election coming – please vote
But don't lose sight of the virus
Lockdowns are awful, fully preventable
But they require that we be smart. And demand more from our leaders
Fin
