This tweet made me wonder whether a particularly pernicious dynamic is at work. https://twitter.com/oldtrotter/status/1315586335156113408

1. Johnson fails to lock down early enough, partly due to bad advice, partly 'libertarian' instincts, partly internal dissent, partly UK exceptionalism.

2. A lot of people die unnecessarily as a result; and a late lockdown means a tight one, bringing large apparent short term hardship.

3. Partly due to UK exceptionalism, partly poor statecraft, test and trace is not built up adequately in the time bought by the lockdown.

4. Johnson's popularity dives, because of the deaths, the hardship, and the cock ups on test and trace.

5. Johnson no longer commands the support of the covid sceptics and 'libertarians' because he is no longer the guarantaur of Tory continuity in power.

6. Because of this, he can't muster enough support for a lockdown tightening that is adequate to tamp down the second wave, caused by his prior failures.

7. As a result, more people die than necessary because the second wave is not adequately tamped down until much later, when the imminent prospect [again] of NHS being overwhelmed, and widespread panic and alarm, stiffens resolve of Tories to lock down, finally.

Obvs a govt of national unity would be the way out of this, since therefore the covid sceptics and libertarians would not be a large enough group to oppose a cross party majority.

Unfortunately with KS in identity building and civil war quelling phase; Johnson's erratic connection with truth telling; the effect of the Coalition on the Lib Dems; Johnson's tenuous hold on the leadership.... all these mitigate against a GNU.