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There was actually a way that Coronavirus could have helped Boris Johnson....and perhaps even partially hid the damage of Brexit - at least in the short term...
...but as I’ve been saying for months now that moment has passed.
A thread.
...but as I’ve been saying for months now that moment has passed.
A thread.
2/
Right at the beginning of COVID Johnson was remarkably bullish about the issue. And saw no reason why it would impact Brexit.
Why?
4 reasons....
Right at the beginning of COVID Johnson was remarkably bullish about the issue. And saw no reason why it would impact Brexit.
Why?
4 reasons....
3/
As EU was hit 1st, GB an island & Tory views of Europeans as anti-risk, anti-science..UK govt assumed UK would suffer the least damage of major EU states.
Such a rosy view also led to idea any COVID damage to economy could hide Brexit costs as UK economy would outperform EU.
As EU was hit 1st, GB an island & Tory views of Europeans as anti-risk, anti-science..UK govt assumed UK would suffer the least damage of major EU states.
Such a rosy view also led to idea any COVID damage to economy could hide Brexit costs as UK economy would outperform EU.
4/
What become increasingly clear over last 6 months is that not only did COVID hit UK hardest in 1st wave but it’s hitting it harder in 2nd wave too.
This is not just bad in competence terms - it’s actually starting to accelerate Brexit costs - not hide them.
Why..?
What become increasingly clear over last 6 months is that not only did COVID hit UK hardest in 1st wave but it’s hitting it harder in 2nd wave too.
This is not just bad in competence terms - it’s actually starting to accelerate Brexit costs - not hide them.
Why..?
5/
UK economy more dependent on consumer spending/debt than other EU stares. This means booms can often be higher but when consumers take fright spending declines faster than comparable states. Easier hire/fire laws mean that furlough is needed more in UK..or job losses instant.
UK economy more dependent on consumer spending/debt than other EU stares. This means booms can often be higher but when consumers take fright spending declines faster than comparable states. Easier hire/fire laws mean that furlough is needed more in UK..or job losses instant.
6/
A UK that showed Brexit-Britain outperforming other COVID EU economies is a powerful selling point for Brexit. Brexit then sells itself. This is what was assumed.
Instead UK is now the economy suffering more than anywhere else in Europe.
But it goes beyond this..
A UK that showed Brexit-Britain outperforming other COVID EU economies is a powerful selling point for Brexit. Brexit then sells itself. This is what was assumed.
Instead UK is now the economy suffering more than anywhere else in Europe.
But it goes beyond this..
7/
If UK COVID is worse than the rest of Europe, the cash-cow London suffers as foreigners avoid it, trade between UK & EU suffers & UK weaker more desperate in trade talks.
We’ve now reached the point that COVID far from hiding Brexit is actually accelerating Brexit costs.
If UK COVID is worse than the rest of Europe, the cash-cow London suffers as foreigners avoid it, trade between UK & EU suffers & UK weaker more desperate in trade talks.
We’ve now reached the point that COVID far from hiding Brexit is actually accelerating Brexit costs.
8/
Little remarked upon is that while post Brexit greater trade friction increases costs - greater trade friction with a COVID Hotspot is accelerates problems.
Are we really going to congregate thousands of lorry drivers & customs officials in Kent in January healthily?
Little remarked upon is that while post Brexit greater trade friction increases costs - greater trade friction with a COVID Hotspot is accelerates problems.
Are we really going to congregate thousands of lorry drivers & customs officials in Kent in January healthily?
9/
Post COVID EU business will withdraw a bit on to what they can achieve the most effectively, healthily inside the EU.
PreCOVID EU might have cut the UK some generous slack - there’s less chance of that now.
The UK needs to recognise this new reality.
Post COVID EU business will withdraw a bit on to what they can achieve the most effectively, healthily inside the EU.
PreCOVID EU might have cut the UK some generous slack - there’s less chance of that now.
The UK needs to recognise this new reality.
10/
This is why Johnson panicking.
He’s gone from confidence that COVID will hide Brexit to realisation UK economy facing implosion come January even as other EU states show up the UK.
The smart thing to do would be to sue for some kind of status quo to get thru 2021.
Will he?
This is why Johnson panicking.
He’s gone from confidence that COVID will hide Brexit to realisation UK economy facing implosion come January even as other EU states show up the UK.
The smart thing to do would be to sue for some kind of status quo to get thru 2021.
Will he?
11/
Answer: I don’t know.
But one thing I do know:
Johnson realises, as does his party, that the country is in the biggest mess since WWII, even while many EU states are recovering.
And unlike the EU things will only get worse from January & he knows this.
/ends
Answer: I don’t know.
But one thing I do know:
Johnson realises, as does his party, that the country is in the biggest mess since WWII, even while many EU states are recovering.
And unlike the EU things will only get worse from January & he knows this.
/ends
