Time to update Marx. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as “bodabil.” But even the political burlesque, the legislative slapstick, that we are witnessing has very real stakes. A budget passed on time. A presidential succession plan. 1/9 https://twitter.com/inquirerdotnet/status/1315531620846235650

The crux of the matter is who has the majority in the House. Cayetano claimed a majority voted to reject his unusual offer to resign as speaker, in a mostly online session. Velasco, today, claims a majority voted for him, in a mostly face-to-face session. 2/9

But this being the Philippines, the majority in the House will follow President Duterte’s lead. The mere fact alone that Velasco’s majority formed later than Cayetano’s suggests that at least 186 reps see Duterte now supporting Velasco. 3/9

Duterte calling Congress to a special session, on the very days that Cayetano unilaterally removed from the legislative calendar, must have been seen by many reps as an indirect reprimand of Cayetano. (Among his allies, Duterte doesn’t do direct.) 4/9

Velasco’s recollection of Duterte’s remarks, about Cayetano fooling both of them (after Cayetano abruptly adjourned the session) went unrebutted. “Pareho tayong na-denggoy (We were both fooled)” continues to echo in the chamber. 5/9

Despite Cayetano’s statements about passing the budget on time, his actions risked a real delay: Abruptly adjourning the session, after passing the budget in the middle of the process and only on second reading, forced the Senate to cry foul. 6/9

Velasco did not have to stage today’s rogue session. He had Duterte’s backing, he had the support of the President’s daughter (by no means pivotal, but politics IS addition), he even had Bong Go, Cayetano’s main ally in 2019, talking of budgets not passing on time. 7/9

He could simply have shown up, surrounded in person by a majority of the reps—that would have been enough. But, bodabil. I’m guessing his bloc didn’t want to offend the President by using up a day in the special session to reorganize. 8/9

So the decision to strike today (and not, say, at the end of the special session) was reached to follow Duterte’s orders. But it was also very much in the Duterte tradition of intra-factional infighting. He really does believe in “matirang matibay.” 9/9