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Don't know who needs to hear this, but:
Knowing forecasts about P(Trump_wins (nationally)) is primarily useful only for making informed decisions now about stuff *after* the election e.g. calculating P(event | Trump_wins) - P(event | ¬Trump_wins).
Knowing forecasts about P(Trump_wins (nationally)) is primarily useful only for making informed decisions now about stuff *after* the election e.g. calculating P(event | Trump_wins) - P(event | ¬Trump_wins).
National forecasts shouldn't be useful for deciding whether to change courses of action to try to decrease P(Trump) as the disutility of Trump winning shouldn't be particularly affected by whether his forecasted probability is say, .2 or .8.
For deciding to change courses of action, you primarily want to know, for each vote you could cause/change:
- the Pr of the vote's state’s electoral votes being necessary, and
- the Pr of the state being tied, given that its electoral votes are necessary
- the Pr of the vote's state’s electoral votes being necessary, and
- the Pr of the state being tied, given that its electoral votes are necessary
- the expected cost of causing the vote.
This let's you estimate the cost of influencing the election by a certain probability.
This let's you estimate the cost of influencing the election by a certain probability.
Like if you have no preparations/decisions to make between now and the election about post-election events, knowing the ongoing cost of a microprobability of Biden winning (a µBiden??) should be ~∞ more valuable than knowing forecasted national win percentages.
If anyone knows any good links for:
- the cost effectiveness of various means of increasing voter turnout for one's candidate,
- 2020 decisive vote odds by state,
I'd appreciate them!
- the cost effectiveness of various means of increasing voter turnout for one's candidate,
- 2020 decisive vote odds by state,
I'd appreciate them!
