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1/IRI rejects anything coming out of DC...basing analysis on this lacks serous understanding of Iran& #39;s foreign policy.
In this
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧵" title="Thread" aria-label="Emoji: Thread">,I& #39;m going to explain why Iran prefers Azerbaijan over Armenia,basing my argument on facts&realities on the ground rather than fantasies/propaganda. https://twitter.com/ProfBShaffer/status/1314572725374070784">https://twitter.com/ProfBShaf...
In this
2/"National security threat":
Iran has always proffered Shia Azeris over Armenians.This has been a policy by all Iranian regimes¬ limited to the Ayatollahs.For instance,Western Azerbaijan province(Iran)used to be the home of Kurds&Armenians.
https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/azerbaijan-iii">https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/...
Iran has always proffered Shia Azeris over Armenians.This has been a policy by all Iranian regimes¬ limited to the Ayatollahs.For instance,Western Azerbaijan province(Iran)used to be the home of Kurds&Armenians.
https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/azerbaijan-iii">https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/...
3/However,throughout 20th century,Shia Persians started to change the demography of this region.Reza Shah(Pahlavi regime)started to settle Azeris in this region as a deterrence against the Kurds&also to end Armenian-Turkish conflict within Iranian borders. https://www.dw.com/fa-ir/%D9%87%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AD%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%DB%8C%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D9%85%DB%8C%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF/a-16438809">https://www.dw.com/fa-ir/%D9...
4/Since then,Armenians&Kurds had to flee from their homes,and now we see a region where Iran uses Azeris to separate the Kurds in Iraq,Turkey&Syria from the ones in Iran&few Armenian families left. Moreover, as a "nail in the coffin",the name of the region was also...
5/Changed from Matiene and Āturpātakān to Western Azerbaijan in early 20th century.
https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/azerbaijan-iii">https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/...
https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/azerbaijan-iii">https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/...
6/In addition,Azerbaijan&Iran have strategic cooperations when it comes to confronting those Azeris who oppose Ayatollahs.
According to reliable reports,Baku has been arresting critics of the Iranian regime&handing over anti-regime Azeri activists to IRI.
https://www.bbc.com/persian/iran/story/2007/05/070531_mf_fatullayev">https://www.bbc.com/persian/i...
According to reliable reports,Baku has been arresting critics of the Iranian regime&handing over anti-regime Azeri activists to IRI.
https://www.bbc.com/persian/iran/story/2007/05/070531_mf_fatullayev">https://www.bbc.com/persian/i...
7/Ideological values:
Iran sees Armenia(a Christian country)as a threat to Ayatollahs& #39; legitimacy. Tired of Sharia law, many Iranians have been converting to Christianity in recent years. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/10/iran-arrests-100-christians-growing-crackdown-minority/">https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018...
Iran sees Armenia(a Christian country)as a threat to Ayatollahs& #39; legitimacy. Tired of Sharia law, many Iranians have been converting to Christianity in recent years. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/10/iran-arrests-100-christians-growing-crackdown-minority/">https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018...
8/Armenian churches in Iran have been playing an important role in Iranians conversion to christianity.Iran blames Yerevan&Armenian churches for spreading Christianity. This is viewed as a significant threat to the legitimacy of the regime in Iran.
https://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/160449/%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B4-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D8%B0%D8%A8-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86">https://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/1...
https://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/160449/%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B4-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D8%B0%D8%A8-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86">https://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/1...
9/As a result,targeting cathedrals by Azerbaijan(Shia Muslim)and change of demography(similar to what took place in Western Azerbaijan province)is something Iran& #39;d always welcome. In short, Baku&Tehran have shared ideological ground in confronting Armenia. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54465172">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/worl...
10/Financial ties&helping IRGC to bypass sanctions:
To measure Iran& #39;s backing for Armenia/Azerbaijan, Tehran& #39;s financial activities should be seen as crucial criteria.
The size of Iran& #39;s Melli Bank building in Baku is revealing,2nd largest after its HQ in Tehran.
To measure Iran& #39;s backing for Armenia/Azerbaijan, Tehran& #39;s financial activities should be seen as crucial criteria.
The size of Iran& #39;s Melli Bank building in Baku is revealing,2nd largest after its HQ in Tehran.
11/IRGC-Azerbaijan financial ties don& #39;t just end with Melli Bank& #39;s branch. Read this for example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-irgc-revolutionary-guards-tower-baku-azerbaijan-sanctions-a8861736.html">https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl...
12/ What is even more revealing is how Baku and Yerevan have reacted to "Maximum Pressure Campaign" on Iran&reimposed sanctions.
While Armenia-Iran trade fallen by 30% , Baku-Tehran trade is going to reach $5,000,000,000(previously $179,000,000). https://www.ilna.news/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-3/968367-%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A2%D8%B0%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%AF%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF">https://www.ilna.news/%D8%A8%D8...
While Armenia-Iran trade fallen by 30% , Baku-Tehran trade is going to reach $5,000,000,000(previously $179,000,000). https://www.ilna.news/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-3/968367-%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A2%D8%B0%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%AF%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF">https://www.ilna.news/%D8%A8%D8...
13/Moreover,Armenia recognising Jerusalem as Israel& #39;s capital has brought Turkey-Azerbaijan&Iran even closer. Prior to recent clashes in #NagornoKarabakh,Tehran warned Armenia for this decision,calling it a strategic miscalculation&have its consequences. https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1053374/%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D8%AD%DA%A9%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B7-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%B1%DA%98%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%B5%D9%87%DB%8C%D9%88%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C">https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1053...
14/Further, neither Iran, nor Azerbaijan/Turkey like to share borders with democratic countries. Tehran,Baku and Ankara are ruled by totalitarians, and any democracy in neighbouring countries is considered as a threat by them.
Armenia and Iran have nothing in common.
Armenia and Iran have nothing in common.
15/From a broader strategic perspective,Armenia-Iran relations are driven by the common concept of isolation rather than any shared values. On one hand,for Armenia surrounded by hostile regimes,Iran is an alternative to its closed western&eastern borders, and ....
16/A way to weaken Moscow& #39;s influence over Yerevan.
Thus, Unlike Azerbaijan and Turkey who have strategic common ground with Iran,Armenia& #39;s relations with Tehran is out of desperation. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/24/armenias-protesters-just-removed-its-russia-friendly-prime-minister.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/2...
Thus, Unlike Azerbaijan and Turkey who have strategic common ground with Iran,Armenia& #39;s relations with Tehran is out of desperation. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/24/armenias-protesters-just-removed-its-russia-friendly-prime-minister.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/2...
17/On the other hand, isolated Iran also used to view Armenia as a ground to counter the West(and Israel&Turkey viewed by Tehran as proxies of US)in the region. However,Turkey has changed under Erdogan&Ankara now has kind of aligned with Iran against the West and Israel.
18/In essence, Iran doesn& #39;t prefer Armenia over Azerbaijan as senior Iranian officials have made it clear. On the contrary, we are likely to witness more cooperation between Iran,Turkey, Azerbaijan(and Russia) on Armenia and other issues in the region. https://twitter.com/Raman_Ghavami/status/1313424146118868993?s=20">https://twitter.com/Raman_Gha...
