1/IRI rejects anything coming out of DC...basing analysis on this lacks serous understanding of Iran's foreign policy.
In this🧵,I'm going to explain why Iran prefers Azerbaijan over Armenia,basing my argument on facts&realities on the ground rather than fantasies/propaganda. https://twitter.com/ProfBShaffer/status/1314572725374070784
2/"National security threat":
Iran has always proffered Shia Azeris over Armenians.This has been a policy by all Iranian regimes&not limited to the Ayatollahs.For instance,Western Azerbaijan province(Iran)used to be the home of Kurds&Armenians.
4/Since then,Armenians&Kurds had to flee from their homes,and now we see a region where Iran uses Azeris to separate the Kurds in Iraq,Turkey&Syria from the ones in Iran&few Armenian families left. Moreover, as a "nail in the coffin",the name of the region was also...
5/Changed from Matiene and Āturpātakān to Western Azerbaijan in early 20th century.

6/In addition,Azerbaijan&Iran have strategic cooperations when it comes to confronting those Azeris who oppose Ayatollahs.
According to reliable reports,Baku has been arresting critics of the Iranian regime&handing over anti-regime Azeri activists to IRI.
8/Armenian churches in Iran have been playing an important role in Iranians conversion to christianity.Iran blames Yerevan&Armenian churches for spreading Christianity. This is viewed as a significant threat to the legitimacy of the regime in Iran.
9/As a result,targeting cathedrals by Azerbaijan(Shia Muslim)and change of demography(similar to what took place in Western Azerbaijan province)is something Iran'd always welcome. In short, Baku&Tehran have shared ideological ground in confronting Armenia. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54465172
10/Financial ties&helping IRGC to bypass sanctions:
To measure Iran's backing for Armenia/Azerbaijan, Tehran's financial activities should be seen as crucial criteria.
The size of Iran's Melli Bank building in Baku is revealing,2nd largest after its HQ in Tehran.
14/Further, neither Iran, nor Azerbaijan/Turkey like to share borders with democratic countries. Tehran,Baku and Ankara are ruled by totalitarians, and any democracy in neighbouring countries is considered as a threat by them.
Armenia and Iran have nothing in common.
15/From a broader strategic perspective,Armenia-Iran relations are driven by the common concept of isolation rather than any shared values. On one hand,for Armenia surrounded by hostile regimes,Iran is an alternative to its closed western&eastern borders, and ....
17/On the other hand, isolated Iran also used to view Armenia as a ground to counter the West(and Israel&Turkey viewed by Tehran as proxies of US)in the region. However,Turkey has changed under Erdogan&Ankara now has kind of aligned with Iran against the West and Israel.
18/In essence, Iran doesn't prefer Armenia over Azerbaijan as senior Iranian officials have made it clear. On the contrary, we are likely to witness more cooperation between Iran,Turkey, Azerbaijan(and Russia) on Armenia and other issues in the region. https://twitter.com/Raman_Ghavami/status/1313424146118868993?s=20
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