Important thread for Londoners

Today, @SadiqKhan repeated his claim from 25 September that London is at a “tipping point in the spread of this virus” and that we need to start preparing for additional restrictions.

We need to be careful, but are we really at a tipping point?

Well there’s no doubt that positive cases are rising in the capital, as we’re seeing in much of the UK. That’s borne out by both @PHE_uk/ @NHSX dashboard data and the @Join_ZOE Covid Symptom Study App.

However the rate of growth in London does not appear comparable with northern parts of England, which was shown in the @ONS infection survey this week:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland9october2020#regional-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

Hospitalisations are perhaps the most important metric and when you compare London with the North West, the capital looks remarkably stable over the past month. I’ve adjusted for population here so it’s like-for-like, using figures from this source: https://digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/nhs-pathways

It’s not a dissimilar pattern for mechanical ventilator bed use, which might be levelling off in London (please note that, as @SepsisUK recently pointed out, the use of such beds does not necessarily mean that all these COVID-19 patients are ventilated).

I’m sure @SadiqKhan has Londoners’ best interests at heart. However his office said on 20/9 that London was only 2 or 3 days behind COVID-19 hotspots in the north, which proved wildly inaccurate, and suggests a problem with the modelling his team is using: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-london-is-only-two-or-three-days-behind-covid-19-hotspots-modelling-suggests-12076768

In summary, of course we should be cautious and not downplay COVID. But based on hospital admissions alone, London’s in a very different situation compared to March, and also the north west right now.

It’s perhaps a bit premature to push for further restrictions in the capital.

CC @EssexPR