This is a very interesting deep dive into the controversial route Sweden took through the spring and summer of the pandemic (HT @AliciaJWeston). A few things stand out... https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/it-s-been-so-so-surreal-critics-sweden-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash

First Sweden did not ‘do nothing’, there were sensible steps taken including restrictions on large gatherings (implemented early on), and there was considerable evidence of altered movement patterns. High schools and universities remote learning too. However...

There was still a very large, very rapid surge in healthcare demand and lot of deaths in a short period during the spring. Mortality was concentrated in nursing homes - which *are* part of the continuum of healthcare. Figures are not easy to interpret because of issues with...

Testing. Who got tested varied. It is reasonable to think that many cases were missed given the focus on symptomatic cases. The refusal to countenance transmission from currently asymptomatic individuals is bizarre and out of sync w expert opinion. That said...

The strong social safety net has probably helped by enabling those w symptoms to stay home from work. And at last contacts of known cases are not assumed to be in the clear if asymptomatic. Entering the fall, Sweden’s approach increasingly looks like that of other countries...

Little immunity was gained through that bitter month in the spring. Why do some insist the population impact of widespread disease is mild against all the evidence we have? It’s true that the IFR varies hugely by age, but if enough become infected it’s quite dangerous *enough*...

And here are the cases rising again, which means there’s not enough immunity in the way to stop them. Note this is from @Worldometers and i think the cases get back filled, so recent numbers continue to go up over the next week or so

Deaths haven’t caught up *yet* and we wouldn’t really expect them to given lags. I’ll note that the case numbers now are not really comparable to the spring due to differences in testing. I hope that the winter turns out better than the spring did. One more thing...

Sweden’s ‘light touch’ strategy has come with large downsides to say the least, and this is implicit in the shift to an approach more like that of other countries with local interventions to stop surges.

If you want a light touch strategy. Why not Japan?