Prof Zhang Weiying with an important warning in the Oct 2020 edition of Dushu magazine: “How to avoid falling into the ‘four traps’” (如何避免陷入“四个陷阱”) https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5pzEc0LXEB3RPydC0eFUJA

The essay describes, mostly using Hitler as an example, how while we hope humans (and our leaders) act rationally, many times they do not. Among other reasons he outlines four “traps”: the ego trap, the self-esteem trap, the belief/faith trap and the groupthink trap.

Among the examples he gives is the ego trap that the German conservative elite fell into when they thought they had ‘hired’ Hitler, who then took control....

Or the self-esteem/pride trap that Hitler fell into, becoming paranoid and refusing to take anyone’s advice, and launching wars on all fronts....

Or the belief trap - in nation/racial superiority/nazism - that the German people fell into, leading to book burnings and the Holocaust.

And finally, the group-think trap, which led Japan to attack Pearl Harbour, despite the huge misgivings of many in the naval elite that it would be a fatal act - and similarly the groupthink in DC which could not imagine such an attack, despite the warnings.

And his conclusion, paraphrased: “we have analyzed each of the four irrational decision traps. Its important to note that these four traps are not only interrelated, but often even work together. How to reduce the disasters caused by irrational decision-making?...

“The most effective way is to decentralize power & resources, to fight ambition with ambition & to constrain power with power. In a competitive market, everyone can make mistakes, but everyone's resources are limited and no one has the opportunity to make catastrophic mistakes...

“A man as ambitious as Elon Musk, as an entrepreneur, can only survive & grow his business empire if consumers & investors are willing to pay for his decisions; even if he goes bankrupt because of a bad decision, society won't lose much...

“But if he is the ruler of a country where power is not effectively constrained, he is very likely to bring about a major disaster for humanity.”

It doesn’t take much to see who & what he is criticising. It’s pretty blatant, esp the egs he gives. That such an essay can still be published is a good thing. But for how long? For those who cannot see any comparisons with 1930s Germany, Zhang’s essay should be a wake up call.//