Thread:

So I decided to have a look at the claim that the schools aren't an issue for the spread of #Covid19. Based on the numbers since schools reopened and some new studies, I have some serious concerns about the role schools have in the spread of the virus.
(1/18)

Firstly, unfortunately we don't release data for ages 0-18. I've decided to focus on the 0-14 age group, but the 15-24 group is worth keeping an eye on too. Secondly, I understand the importance of schools, but an issue is an issue.
(2/18)

Here's the data from August 24th, the day before schools reopened:
27,969 Total Cases.
770 Cases in 0-14 Age.
2.75% of Total Cases.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/august2020/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)%20v1.0_20200824_website.pdf
(3/18)

And here's the latest data available from October 9th:
40,086 Total Cases.
2,054 Cases in 0-14 Age.
5.13% of Total Cases.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20201009%20-%20website.pdf
(4/18)

So what does that mean?
Since the schools reopened the proportion of cases aged 0-14 has risen from 2.75% to 5.13% an increase of 86.5%. So the first claim that there hasn't been an increase in the proportion of school aged kids since schools reopened simply is not true. (5/18)

Not only that, but during this time, the total cases increased from 27,969 to 40,086, an increase of 43%, but in the ages of 0-14 it increased from 770 to 2,054, which is an increase of 166%.

(6/18)

This is clearly a massively disproportionate increase in cases of young children since the schools reopened. The fact that this is being played down by NPHET and the government makes absolutely no sense to me. The numbers don't lie.
(7/18)

So, why do I think this is a major problem? 3 things.

1. Recent studies showing ventilation is more important than distance in indoor settings and our policy of 1 metre social distancing in classrooms.

(8/18)

2. The fact that kids are extremely likely to be asymptomatic carriers of Covid.

and

3. A new study from Princeton involving contact tracing of over 500,000 people in India which concluded that children are large spreaders of covid.

(9/18)

Going to break here to give you some links to the studies and then I'm going to give you a worrying scenario.

1. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-coronavirus-importance-ventilation.html
2. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/children-may-be-silent-carriers-of-covid-19#Kids-still-shed-virus-when-asymptomatic
3. https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/30/largest-covid-19-contact-tracing-study-date-finds-children-key-spread-evidence

(10/18)

Ok, here's your scenario:
In a class of 30, you have one confirmed case, because of distancing of 1 metre, their classmates are therefore not considered close contacts and so aren't tested. However we now know in indoor settings, ventilation is as important as distance
(11/18)

Based on poor indoor ventilation and the new suggestion that children are major spreaders, and the large proportion of asymptomatic kids, it is now very likely that there are multiple other children in the class that are positive, but will not even be tested.

(12/18)

These kids go out into the world and based on princetons study, are very likely to be spreading this disease to others. But let's just say they only give it to their parents. Based on a possible incubation period of 14 days...

(13/18)

... It is very possible that by the time the parent tests positive, the kid is deemed a close contact and tested, that the virus has already passed through the childs system and they test negative.

(14/18)

This leaves everyone scratching their head, wondering where the parent got it and another 1 being added to the "community transmission" column, when in fact it originated in a school, we just didn't know.

(15/18)

And if the kid tests positive, it still won't be counted as school related, because it will be assumed they caught it off the parent, so there's another 1 for the "community transmission column".

(16/18)

Based on all of the above, I cannot for the life of me figure out how they are so confident that schools aren't driving transmissions, I really can't. There needs to be proper mass testing of schools before they can really rule it out.

(17/18)

It's definitely something that worries me and that's mainly because it seems NPHET and the Government refuse to even consider it as a possibility, despite ample evidence that it very much could be a rather big issue.

ENDS

@TarynDeVere this might interest you...?