Thread by @SchottHappens, 1/ I know we're all gun shy because of what happened in [...]

Bryan Schott

SchottHappens

1/

I know we& #39;re all gun shy because of what happened in 2016. But, if you look at the presidential race without emotion, there& #39;s only one conclusion you can make right now:

Trump is losing this race right now, and losing badly.

2/

Biden is leading Trump nationally by 10 points according to the FiveThirtyEight average.

Biden is ahead in nearly every swing state RCP average:

FL: Biden +3.7
PA: Biden +7.1
MI: Biden +6.7
WI: Bien +5.5
NC: Biden +1.4
AZ: Biden +2.7

(Boat parades don& #39;t count)

3/

In most of those swing state polls, Biden is at or above 50%.

Yes, Clinton was ahead of Trump in the polls at this point in 2016, but she wasn& #39;t over 50% in many of those states. That& #39;s a big difference.

4/

A lot of R& #39;s are pinning their hopes on a "shy Trump" vote.

I would argue there are probably as many "shy Biden" voters out there, too.

Furthermore, I would argue that there aren& #39;t enough "shy Trump" voters to make up the kind of deficit Trump is looking at.

5/

Trump& #39;s base is shrinking. In a couple of polls following his COVID diagnosis, his support from seniors dropped more than 20 points.

I& #39;ve never seen anything like that.

If Trump loses seniors, it& #39;s over.

6/

Trump is also losing big in nearly every demographic outside of non-college educated whites.

Women voters in particular have turned on him.

Those numbers could take down a number of down-ballot R& #39;s, too. It& #39;s why Lindsey Graham is in trouble in SC.

7/

Sure, things could change. That& #39;s why I& #39;m not making a prediction, here.

But, Trump is losing right now, and he& #39;s not doing anything to turn those numbers around.

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