1/

I know we're all gun shy because of what happened in 2016. But, if you look at the presidential race without emotion, there's only one conclusion you can make right now:

Trump is losing this race right now, and losing badly.

2/

Biden is leading Trump nationally by 10 points according to the FiveThirtyEight average.

Biden is ahead in nearly every swing state RCP average:

FL: Biden +3.7
PA: Biden +7.1
MI: Biden +6.7
WI: Bien +5.5
NC: Biden +1.4
AZ: Biden +2.7

(Boat parades don't count)

3/

In most of those swing state polls, Biden is at or above 50%.

Yes, Clinton was ahead of Trump in the polls at this point in 2016, but she wasn't over 50% in many of those states. That's a big difference.

4/

A lot of R's are pinning their hopes on a "shy Trump" vote.

I would argue there are probably as many "shy Biden" voters out there, too.

Furthermore, I would argue that there aren't enough "shy Trump" voters to make up the kind of deficit Trump is looking at.

5/

Trump's base is shrinking. In a couple of polls following his COVID diagnosis, his support from seniors dropped more than 20 points.

I've never seen anything like that.

If Trump loses seniors, it's over.

6/

Trump is also losing big in nearly every demographic outside of non-college educated whites.

Women voters in particular have turned on him.

Those numbers could take down a number of down-ballot R's, too. It's why Lindsey Graham is in trouble in SC.

7/

Sure, things could change. That's why I'm not making a prediction, here.

But, Trump is losing right now, and he's not doing anything to turn those numbers around.