I know we're all gun shy because of what happened in 2016. But, if you look at the presidential race without emotion, there's only one conclusion you can make right now:

Trump is losing this race right now, and losing badly.

Biden is leading Trump nationally by 10 points according to the FiveThirtyEight average.

Biden is ahead in nearly every swing state RCP average:

FL: Biden +3.7
PA: Biden +7.1
MI: Biden +6.7
WI: Bien +5.5
NC: Biden +1.4
AZ: Biden +2.7

(Boat parades don't count)

In most of those swing state polls, Biden is at or above 50%.

Yes, Clinton was ahead of Trump in the polls at this point in 2016, but she wasn't over 50% in many of those states. That's a big difference.

A lot of R's are pinning their hopes on a "shy Trump" vote.

I would argue there are probably as many "shy Biden" voters out there, too.

Furthermore, I would argue that there aren't enough "shy Trump" voters to make up the kind of deficit Trump is looking at.

Trump's base is shrinking. In a couple of polls following his COVID diagnosis, his support from seniors dropped more than 20 points.

I've never seen anything like that.

If Trump loses seniors, it's over.

Trump is also losing big in nearly every demographic outside of non-college educated whites.

Women voters in particular have turned on him.

Those numbers could take down a number of down-ballot R's, too. It's why Lindsey Graham is in trouble in SC.

Sure, things could change. That's why I'm not making a prediction, here.

But, Trump is losing right now, and he's not doing anything to turn those numbers around.
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